And he’s out with his May Commentary, several interesting points here, here’s a few snippets and a link to the rest of the paper.

I remain of the view that 2018 will be a positive year for equities, primarily because of performance in the second half and driven by earnings growth. The tax cut should enable the S&P 500 to come in with earnings of $160 in 2018. At current market levels, the index is only at about 16 times earnings, which is favorable at present interest rates. If yields rise or the earnings outlook deteriorates, the prospects for equities would change, but signs that this shift is about to happen have not yet appeared. I still believe a recession and/or a bear market is at least two years away.

For all of these reasons, I believe that beyond this year stock and bond returns will disappoint those investors who have become accustomed to the higher returns achieved earlier in this bull market. Future returns for the S&P 500 will be in single digits. With interest rates likely to increase, future gains in the broad indexes will be the sum of earnings gains and dividends. I expect earnings gains to be roughly equivalent to the nominal growth of the economy of 4%–5% and dividends to be about 2%, for a total of 6%–7%. That is consistent with the long-term appreciation of the S&P 500. I still have year-end 2018 target of 3000, but the extended period of multiple expansion as bond yields have declined is over. Bond returns will be muted as well. The 30+ year bond bull market is over. If the 10-year Treasury bond yield rises to a level of 3.25%–3.5%, then many longer-duration fixed income assets will underperform.

Source: Blackstone