And finally the energy sector has its turn to drop thanks to the incredible low bid by PTTEP for the two oil blocks. Perhaps finally the disconnect between PTTEP’s share price and oil prices will converge (in english – PTTEP drop’s another 20%) 

Now if the BOT does increase interest rates will the prop funds/REITs face some outflow? 

  1. Hello Pon..
    Thanks for your Informative Website..

    If i look to the Smaller Market Cap Stocks there is an Boodbath and most of Shares are now lower then in the Financial Crisis.
    If i look to Stocks like CNT, BR,BJCHI,BWG,Sappe,SQ,STPI,TSR,TKN,DCC,CM,AIT to name just an few i guess the Thai Economy must collapse soon .
    If the Proposed Growth Rates from Government right how itbis possible that hundreds of Listed Companies on Sset or Mai hovering around All Time Lows..
    It is an strange Market here …
    However i think it is wise to stay away from Thai most Company’s was not able to grown Profit and Margins in the Boom that the World had lately. So how they can manage the next Downturn in the World Economy..
    For me it looks like the Thai Eco Model is broken…
    What’s your opinion ?

    • Long questions…but a quick answer.

      Each company mentioned has different drivers i.e. CNT grew on the back of modern retailers expanding throughout the region – this has slowed and government spending hasn’t picked up and the bigger players are competing on smaller projects for the past 3-5 years hence why smaller players are suffering. Plus china co’s are in.
      AIT – no new government IT projects for a long time
      BR – soft commodity price related
      sappe – was expensive, #’s as per expected
      DCC – benefited from upcountry growth from 2005-2012, upcountry peaked out when rice prices were highest (along with every other soft commodity)
      CM – don’t know it well enough
      SQ – one off issue with one of its locations
      TSR – shit management
      TKN – one product company
      STPI – Benefitted during oil boom, oil down = no more boom
      BJCHI – See STPI
      BWG – Had a non-exec shareholder related to Victoria Secret massage scandal, #’s of the business are great ex the one time costs of plant start ups 4Q17-1Q18

      Thailand has done well since 2004 to 2012 why? Came out of the crisis in’97, balance sheets cleaned up by ’02 ’03, lots of spending capacity, low debts in firms and households plus demographics were great in that period. Now its a different problem.

      Globally – it’s been 10 years since the last slowdown…monetary easing = easy money = rising asset prices, this is being taken away

      Are there opportunities left in this market? Now? Definitely.

      Thai eco model broken? Which one? Agriculture doing fine, tourism regardless of news is great (yes looks bad YoY but great over a 5-10 year period), exports – auto’s and electronics ok. So a lot of the drivers are doing ok, nothing can be great due to the global slowdown.

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