As requested. Here’s the USDTHB vs the 10 year thai gov bond yield over the past 7-8 years.
A quick regression showed:
- High correlation between 2011-3Q14, 2H16 – now.
What reason(s) could there be for 3Q14-3Q15 breaking the trend?
- US Fed rate hike cycle beginning – granted in 2013 they begun talking about it leading to disarray in the markets. Though the hikes only begun in December 2015, with this out of the way, market expectations begun to price it in and correlations resumed (absolutely random analysis – who knows!)