Market Update 02/08
On a USD basis, the SET is -5% for the year.
Frustrated that these lockdowns are going to potentially last for the whole month of August which just leads to more market share for the big boys, higher NPLs etc etc. Supply chain’s are going to be stretched further, inventories are high for some, none for others, the ramp up will be nuts. Go for a walk through the city – those outlets (coffee shops, restaurants, clothes, beauty, fitness, hotels) are gone. Like I’ve said, the world we’ll return to will look very different from the one we left.
We’re still in the midst of 2Q earnings. I wonder how much of 3Q/4Q will have to be written off by the retailers.
peter satrapa-binder
1.) Yes, there well may not be a going back to the pre-covid world and lifestyle.
2.) I’d be happy if the lockdown would have to be extended until the end of august ONLY – although, at one point, i guess it just won’t be possible to maintain it any more – covid or no covid!
Pon
It’s not possible to maintain.
Touchy comment – It isn’t politically favourable to see dead people on TV – hence why lockdowns are implemented which lead to the 1st/2nd/3rd order effects which are far worse but not visible on TV.
I know of several people in their late 20’s to late 30’s that can’t pay rent.
The mindset of consumers may shift dramatically going forward (hopefully, far too much credit card debt in the system)
But hey we all need a fancy new phone…
peter satrapa-binder
well, i guess there is a very strong financial and economic darwinian process underway now – not only on personal and individual company or industry basis, but probably also on country-by-country basis…
Pon
It’s been an extinction event for SMEs
Peter Barlow
I live in a quite new middle classThai Moobaan 5km South of the centre of Chiang Mai. My wife keeps the books of the management. 40% plus of the 120 houses are now abandonned. Only 50% are paying their Moobaan fees. I do not understand how the Banks can talk about NPLs being ‘ within limits ‘. Chiang Mai is a disaster zone.
peter satrapa-binder
the banks, etc. do have to talk down the facts – if they would be truthful, there’d maybe be a panic by now…
now some news have started to crop up regarding the property market coming into trouble. but i guess that was foreseeable, with all that oversupply already existing pre-covid (at least in bangkok) plus negative going-ons in the economy…