Market Update 18/05
So 1Q20 #’s are done, and were generally well-protected due to the fact that pain only started towards the end of Feb. 2Q20 will show the real impact with April and May having effectively zero transactions for the majority of businesses.
So now what? The OPEC+ deal to cut supply lasts for 2 years, yes it may be revised during meetings, but you may see a scenario where demand > supply starting in 3Q20…
Is it really out of the realm of possibility that in 3 months the domestic economy, movement is 100% back to normal? Is it really out of the realm of possibility that in 6 months international business is 100% back to normal? But if there’s a reduced supply of hotel rooms/planes etc, could we see an increase in the price per item?
peter satrapa-binder
surely, the full impact for many businesses will show in the 2Q20 figures only.
@domestic economy reverting to normal within 3 mths.: i think that at least domestic tourism won’t . too many people have money problems now so their first thought surely won’t be to go on holiday or go shopping for not necessary items… and as long as the ‘social distancing’ measures are in force i guess all will stay at a somewhat subdued level.
i’d be happy if all will be back to normal in january 2021.
same for international business, especially transport of persons/tourism: normal in 6 mths. only possible if on any reason the coronavirus would completely and suddenly disappear now… otherwise? ok in 2-3 years maybe?