So as I thought, the SET had a slight recovery last week. But as you can see multiple sectors in Thailand are down more than -20%, something the media loves to define as a bear market. The same is seen in multiple markets throughout the region/world ex a few large names.
It is interesting to see how this will play out. I’m still of the following viewpoints/questions:
- Interest rate increases = asset prices declining
- The Fed (and now ECB) have stopped QE and are doing QT, so capital within the system should decrease = asset prices declining
- At one point this business cycle will have to end
- Not sure if this is just a pause in the dollar increase or if it’s done.
- Still think better opportunities will be found in the next 1-2 months
- BUT – we are seeing valuations in multiple names (outside the usual top 20) return to levels that boggle the mind i.e. (friggin!) cheap even if rates in Thailand were to increase to 3-4%.