Under the constitution, post-election Thailand would have a military-appointed senate and elected lower house. A prime ministerial candidate must achieve a majority in a joint vote of both chambers, making it challenging for Pheu Thai to emerge with the leader even if it takes control of the lower house.

“Before this, three years ago, these people would vote against us, but now some of these people will vote for us,” Phongthep said. “We can say we are one of the parties which stands firm against a non-democratic regime.”

Some quick thoughts on this:

  • Is the politicking beginning now?
  • It’s not the first time that Pheu Thai is viewed favourably in the Western Media
  • Thailand’s growth has been rubbish since 2012, one reason is the populist policies by Yingluck’s government that pulled a lot of demand forward
  • The military has done ok, the watch scandal is incredibly stupid on their part
  • When will elections occur? No idea, I posted a month or so ago, Random Thoughts: Elections, that I didn’t believe it would happen within 2018 because of the necessary legal timeline + other events that have yet to occur
  • Who is the next political leader that can actually drive the country forward? This Phongthep is an unknown, the Democrats with Abhisit are meh. So…the options are just rubbish, it’s the military’s to lose, then again the same was said for Hilary Clinton.

 

Source: Bloomberg

  1. Main points here are education, and technology. We are in 2018 and you can’t have substantial growth without those two. So hard to find tech stocks to invest in thailand. Rice, cars components and tourists are not enough. After 97 crisis, thailand missed the technology train. Just look what they achieved in South Korea with education and technology.

    A 3,5% is still weak for a 6,000 $ per capita A beautiful country, with a lot of potential. A strategic position. in middle of next future top 5 economies like India Indonesia China…

    Hope next governments, whatever colors they are, they start to take action in these fields for the next generation of thais.

    • 1. Thailand is too old to push for faster growth.
      2. This leads to less domestic consumption ie less spending
      3. For Thailand to move further up the value chain manufacturing wise, education, as you said, is required, and because of a lack of effort/progress made by the ministry of education 20 years ago this will be tough for Thailand to achieve today. Then again with technology being where it is the # of required employees does drop, so perhaps this may offset the weak education.

  2. 30 years in ASEAN and 10 years in Thailand gives me no reason to be optimistic. The only regional country to move forward has been China, and that at an appalling cost in human lives. Even now the Fat Lady is still singing in the Middle Kingdom.
    IMHO Thailand will continue to blunder and stagger its way on. No worse and no better than others in the region. I will continue to keep my head down and practice enlightened self interest.
    Democracy is in retreat worldwide. ”Big Men” rule everywhere. There is a Global effort to resist change. ”Peace in our time” is promised by spineless leaders facing brute force.
    Plus ca change, plus cést la meme chose.

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