Property limits

So there’s been noise in the market over the past few months with the BOT first coming out saying that they want to stop the search for yield characteristics in the property market. And on Friday it was announced that the below regulations will come into effect by 1 April 2019. 

What’s the impact been on property stocks?  So let’s look at a few in the past 6 months. Other than ANAN the rest of the names have been hurt. ORI the worst though I would argue that was due to it’s ridiculously high valuations.

So what?

• Well without a doubt its going to have a negative impact on the property sector, but the thinking we’ve had is that it’s going to hurt the smaller players, especially non-listed ones that have developments in average locations more than it will those with good locations throughout the city.
• Search for yield will continue regardless.
• Shouldn’t an increase in interest rates have this desired impact? Government agencies following historical data instead of being forward looking…
• Would we finally see a decline or slow down in property price increases within inner Bangkok?
• What would happen to the property sector should interest rates increase by 200 bps combined with these regulations?

Tourism, fee entry! 

And so the government is worried about losing tourists after the poor choice of words from the deputy PM. And decided last week to give free visa’s on arrival.

The 21 countries are Andora, Bulgaria, Bhutan, China, Cyprus, Ethiopia, Fiji, India, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Maldives, Malta, Mauritius, Papua New Guinea, Romania, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan, said the government spokesman.

Source: Bangkok Post

So here’s a 5 year chart on the Tourist #’s to Thailand

And here are the key stocks (MINT, DTC, ERW, CENTEL, AOT) related to tourism in the past 12 months – no airlines

So what?

• This is why I like charts, it allows for you to take a step back and have a look at the big picture (and this is only a 5 year chart!). It doesn’t look like a worrying sustained trend (yet).
• Does it really look that bad? I’d say no.
• What positive impact does this really bring? It’s already mid November.
• As with every hiccup regarding Tourism in Thailand, I don’t see the longer term trend leading to a decline in # of visitors, I still can the #’s doubling over the next decade.
• But what about from a different viewpoint…what if the Chinese consumer is spending less? What would that mean not just for Thailand but for every other economy?

PTTEP vs OILSo either the global investors are wrong on oil or the investors in PTTEP are wrong.

Which one gives out first?