1Q12 GDP just released this AM, growing + 0.3% YoY vs consensus -0.5% YoY, and up +11% QoQ.

Just briefly consensus estimates for the year are as follows:

  • GDP Growth: 5.5-6.5 %
  • Inflation: 3.5%-4.0%

My thoughts?

  • Nice quick recovery from the disastrous 4Q11 where Thailand was economically devastated by the floods. We’ll go through the full release and see if there’s anything out of the ordinary, although I’m just expecting to see a rebound in exports for the auto/electronics sector.
  • Going forward, our viewpoint remains the same, Thailand should easily hit +6.0 GDP Growth YoY if the government starts on the infrastructure spending
  • I think inflation will start to creep up faster b/c of minimum wage increases last month (although with oil prices now around 92 that may depress it slightly)
  • Interest rates are going to remain flat until the BOT feels more comfortable with GDP growth, not likely to happen until the latter part of the year.
See below for a pretty chart of SET vs GDP 🙂 


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