Bill Gross’ latest paper is out and here are some snippets.

The Fed, however, seems intent on raising FF if only to prove that they can begin the journey to “normalization.” They should, but their September meeting language must be so careful, that “one and done” represents an increasing possibility – at least for the next six months. The Fed is beginning to recognize that 6 years of zero bound interest
rates have negative influences on the real economy – it destroys historical business models essential to capitalism such as pension funds, insurance companies, and the willingness to save money itself. If savings wither then so too does its Siamese Twin – investment – and with it, long term productivity – the decline of which we have seen not just in the U.S. but worldwide

But this imbalance between savings/investment and consumption is not the only Frankenstein creation that zero percent yields have created

High quality global bond markets offer little reward relative to durational risk. Private equity and hedge related returns cannot long prosper if global growth remains anemic. Cash or better yet “near cash” such as 1-2 year corporate bonds are my best idea of appropriate risks/reward investments.

Source: Janus


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