I’ve been reading Barry Ritholtz’s writings for the past 7 years and have always enjoyed his insights, this latest post in The Washington Post struck a chord for me. After being in the industry for 10 years, the first 6 years I was spewing forecasts left right and center (like every new dumb kid in the industry) but in the past 4 years I just told clients “I don’t know what will happen tomorrow, but we only invest in names that allow us to sleep well at night.” Sales people of course hate it, some clients don’t like it, but I think those that had to earn their wealth do appreciate it.
Enjoy the snippets below and a link to the full article
- A perfect example is the recent collapse in oil prices. Having completely missed the 50 percent drop that occurred over 2014, analysts are now tripping all over themselves to forecast $40, $30, $20 per barrel in 2015.
- Never forget this simple truism: Forecasting is marketing, plain and simple.
Source: The Washington Post