The market seems to be following the usual euphoria pattern whenever there is a new government in place, it’s the typical 1) New government, wooooooooooooooo things are going to be great, infrastructure and policies are going to be put through immediately 2) Ohh things are taking a bit longer than we expected, but the dream is still a go! 3) Wait a minute, 3Q14 earnings were average, but its ok let’s still believe in the dream! 4) Oh crap, FY14 earnings were really really bad, things are taking far longer than expected, valuations are high, currencies/commodities are going nuts around the world, consumer debt is high and nothing has happened yet!

I’m not saying that there is an immediate crash at all for Thailand, just that the euphoria is dying off and reality is settling in, the dream still exists with the infrastructure spending but this is offset with valuations that aren’t the most attractive (would you buy Apple @ ~15x PE, Google @ ~20x PE, or Thailand @ ~21x?).




  1. Although the average is 21x or there abouts, there is such a diverse spread within the PEs of different companies, I see some of the valuations partuclarly in the renewables, consumer products and healthcare being incredibly inflated at the moment.

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