Market Update 29/07
And in the blink of an eye, Thailand is one of the best, if not the best performer in the world this month. The threat of the Cambodians, tariffs, a new BoT governor and the Shinawatras potentially being kicked out has made Thai Stocks great again.
We’re in the midst of earnings season and let’s see this goes. But if every overhang slowly starts to go away then we’re just going to see higher lows in the market until investors start to believe that the current “cheap valuations” in the SET are unwarranted.
peter satrapa-binder
well, looking at the earnings published up to now, they are not looking great. even banks seem mostly to have slightly weaker earnings then for the same period 1 year ago. the first other companies which have published their earnings have all been weaker than 1 year ago.
of course there isn’t much data yet, but I’d believe that the already existing data does point to the fact of thailand’s economy not being in the best shape.
Pon
Vitai is V for Victory. At the end of they day we’ll see what happens with the new BoT gov.
Bull pic remains, FDI stays decent, tourism peaks up sequentially, liquidity returns, cheap valuations (A goldman director saved my backside in 2008 commenting that whenever EMs hit BV or less its normally an attractive time to buy, one should ignore PE as it swings with earnings but the BV remains)
Bear pic remains, old, in debt, nothing moves the needle on FDI, continued political infighting.
There’s probably another 2,000 points to add to both arguments but you see the picture.
Paul Renaud
Much agree with your comment today….here is another showing how distorted the SET can be.
One of these days it will be “the revenge of the nerds”.
DELTA ELECTRONICS (DELTA, 144) its trailing p/e is 88 -and its dividend yield is barely 0.3%, or barely 1/15 the average dividend yield here.
Its constantly pumped and speculated on and on, for years -and very often the most traded or in the top 5. Yuanta Securities has a sell on it for some time, with a target price at 66 Baht, or less then half the current mkt. price! DELTA just this morning reported disappointing 2 Q. earnings, yet it looks like it will open-up 2%. Its the long song-dance story here: don’t analyze stocks….if you think the market will go higher here, just buy DELTA -and go to the beach.
The irony on all this -after years of such non-sense, dividend yields are going through the roof on many long neglected quality others, with 1/5 or less in valuation. The so called “yield gap” in Thailand has to be at the world record….at some point it has to give.
Pon
Oh Paul…don’t you see the upside…just imagine WHAT IF tariffs are less than expected, then the perceived value DELTA can continue to moonshot and even if it doesn’t then the dividend yield will reach 20% based upon my outlandish forecast of it’s earnings potential.
And now look at this rabbit that I am about to pull out of my hat.