What a week this has been, firstly we started off with rumours in regards to Europe somehow banning Thai businesses and citizens. Where on earth could this have come from? Who would have believed this (a lot of people it seems) But what was the impact? The market suddenly dropped by -1% after the midday break, with names such as CBG decreasing 8% that day (and hasn’t bounced back since) and it resulted in the Junta’s favourite marketing man, Somkid, quickly running out from Phatra’s Thai focus investment day to deal with these silly rumours.

Never too far away from the rumour action are Samart and samtel – there were further rumours that management was invited yet again for another “discussion+ or coffee or whatever you want to call with the royal thai police force ‎causing the both stocks to continue their weakness, of course this ended up being not true…can you imagine the bounceback in both names if they were to win a government-related project within the next few months?
Finally (and really finally I’m already bored of talking about it ) it’s been on everyone’s thoughts and minds how stupid CPALL exec’s were for 1) insider trading (funnily enough a lot of my Thai colleagues say they were stupid for getting caught) 2) Saying they don’t know about it and of course 3) K. Korsak has left us with this peach of a quote:
I did not do anything against corporate governance practice. CP All has continued to show prominent growth. Could all those excellent corporate governance listed firms make such high returns to investors as I do?
Source: Bangkok Post
Ok great so as long as you make $, great returns, you can do what you want. – Too big to be guilty?
  1. Istitutional investors are selling now and every rumors/small events is a good catalyst. This will push SET under 1,300 a good entry point for long term, I want keep track on a blog:-)

    Anyway, enjoy SET holidays and happy ride with Bike for Dad:-)

        • While the SET is what… -10% and falling? World money flowing back to the US in the run-up to an almost guaranteed rate-rise is no surprise.

          I kinda like it for the sole reason you get to see what Thai stocks look like without foreign cash propping them up. For example, the last time ADVANC dipped under 200 was during the Bangkok shutdown in late 13/early 14. Foreigners fled the country in a similar situation to the last ~8 months and those who bought made ~40% (~190 -> ~250 + dividend). Assuming ADVANC win next week, both 4G payments will have a negligible effect on its fundamentals, thus a no-brainer investment imo!

          • Well do the numbers on the payment terms, there is a slight chance the divvy gets hit

            plus the funds have been flowing out of thailand and the region in general since may ’12

  2. Hi Pon.

    It is not covered in this week’s Random Thoughts, but I would like to ask anyway. What’s your opinion on Thursday’s projected US interest rate increase and how will it affect the SET? Has it already been factored in or is it going to pull the SET down? Any comment you make is much appreciated.

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