~Rant begins~

Some of the books I’ve revisited during the past 6 months were George Orwell’s 1984 and Animal Farm. And for my own personal amusement I shall do a poor usage of the characters name for this random thoughts post

Characters:

  • Napoleon – Prawit
  • Squealer – Prayuth
  • Boxer – Anutin
  • Benjamin – Pheu Thai

I wish I could say something positive about this government for once – note I’m referring to the “Elected officials” not the government administration which includes doctors/nurses etc. But I can’t. Lockdown’s don’t work.

Up until recently I had referred to the administration being incompetent, now I’ll redefine it. They are incredibly competent at pushing through their own agenda.

Squealer and the administration goes back and forth between with its policies, and then the population within this country will have to follow the directions of the unelected Province leadership. They’re all rather useless.

So wuflu is apparently found in gambling den’s which the wonderful Napoleon first said does not exist and then magically does. Everyone in Thailand knows that the gambling den’s are linked to the police originally, perhaps now the army has their hands in it too. Ever questioned why the drug trade is huge in Thailand?

Amusing that the major breakouts for this wuflu have come from army-related facilities – the muay thai boxing rings and now gambling dens – police/army-related. Which government institution is then the real disease here?

If I was the government I would be utilising the exact strategy they are against the protestors, however if the volume of protests continues to increase, the crash is only worse.

Boxer has been up to his usual verbal diarrhea, do you think Thailand’s delay in receiving the vaccine is due to incompetence or lining up kickbacks?

~Rant over~

~Random Predictions for 2021~

  • Protests will kick off once again when this round of lockdown is over – and watch it become stronger.
  • Napoleon and Squealer will be gone by mid-year – Or they’ll finish their 20 year target.
  • CP Group will have to sell off an entity to cover their debt – They’re cash broke.
  • Inflation (supply-side) is going to kick off off strongly – Look at soft commodity prices…
  • R#10 will do an act that brings positive public support – Protest related.
  • The SET will reach 2,000 – Commodities, low rates, consolidation, fund flows
  • Roll-up across industries continue – Your 2nd/3rd favourite hotel, coffee shop, restaurant, supplier/service provider are dead.
  • USD/THB hits 26 – Thailand is still a net exporter, hasn’t relied upon foreign debt issuance since Thaksin part I (for now), capital flows.
  • For my friends that listened re BTC – it’ll hit USD 100k this year or go to zero.

Note: I’m probably wrong on all of the above

~Book~

I spent xmas/new years reading “The Crown & The Capitalists by Wasana Wongsurawat”. Have a look for it if you want a better understanding of the linkages. Forewarning – It’s not exciting reading, it’s academic in writing, but it’s interesting.

~Youtube clip~

  1. Peter Satrapa-binder

    To your random thoughts: Well, IF there will be more and stronger protests and the Thai Baht should hit US$ 26, I don’t think that there would be a SET at 2,000 – half of that, maybe…

    • Lived here long enough to know that protests don’t matter.

      look at the US, BLM for 7 months, antifa for a few years, 1 day of MAGA, US stocks still up up up.

  2. I too reread Animal Farm but about a year ago. I have just reread Brave New World. How prescient were both. And maybe Pon, you are also prescient. Your view on inflation is repeated elsewhere and I for one see it as a necessary part of the world recovery post Covid. The problem is in the control, and I think the Fed will take a leaf out of the European bankers book and let inflation loose for a while.
    As for Crypto. I have a friend who was an instant addict but when the Coin started to go exponential he found he could not trade [Coinbase].
    I took profit too early on DELTA now I can only see a ridiculous bubble. It makes Bitcoin look like a rather dull performance.

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