It’s been yet another interesting week with these four key points dominating the discussion and the movement in the market. Before we get started a proper random thought:
- Why do dentists ask you questions whilst they are drilling your teeth and expect an response?
- Japan’s Central bank has now come out with its umpteenth arrow with negative rates which immediately led to the JPY going weaker and pushing a risk on rally throughout the world
- Should all central bankers (including the fed) come together and continue on their forever ending easing path will all risk assets continue to rally? At point will deflation become a concern? Or if the Fed does decrease rates will this lead the USD becoming weaker and oil prices forming a bottom and beginning a rally?
- The chatter over who is going to acquire Groupe Casino’s stake in BIGC Thailand has left the headlines but within the industry there are still many people wondering who will come in? We know about CP, Charoen, Central (which already own some ~20% shares), Lotte (which btw are opening a duty free shop on the rama IX part of RCA), and AEON. I’ve recently heard about Singha Group (via S) and Red Bull as potential acquirers, I can understand S given they are on a chest thumping massive real estate expansion plan, but have zero expertise in this (unless all of the ex-central people on board have a say…) as for Red Bull? Who knows…but it’s interesting to see that the stock price isn’t expecting a huge bidding war for it.
- The 4G saga continues with rumours/news (who knows in Thailand) that JAS won’t be able to get the necessary financing to pay for its 4G license. Surprised? Where’s this magical foreign partner? It’ll be interesting to see how the NBTC solves this mess (don’t forget all of the funds raised by the government were going to be used for mass populist policies…). Hypothetically, whatif JAS doesn’t pay? A reauction? That would take 6-12 months as they’ll have to draft a new paper just for this. What will TRUE say? Even though they have a better spectrum than JAS don’t be surprised to see them throwing up a hissy fit (just like w/ digital TV) and refusing to pay. DTAC? They get to live to fight another day. ADVANC? Laughing their a$$es off
- Lastly this new constitution…there are many things that will be wrong with it (this idiot writing it has written a few in the past that already have been torn up!) and it’s interesting to note that Prayuth has come out saying “no matter what we’ll have an election next year!” Funny then, if memory serves correct didn’t they postpone elections in 2016 to have this constitution re-drafted? Have to love the consistency here…