A good friend over the weekend spoke with me and said “Pon where the f are your rants, bring them back!”

So here’s one I had filed since…July, again pardon the writing, this isn’t The Economist.

The region
I’ve been thinking for the past decade when traveling throughout the region that I no longer see European and American firms in the region compared to their prominence pre and post ’97. And seeing Telenor sell out of Myanmar (https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2145843/telenor-announces-myanmar-exit) brought back these thoughts.

The same perhaps applies to “Democracy”

SE Asia may have had to appear “democratic” in order to receive capital from the IMF, investments from the US and Europe since WWII. But with China’s rise over the past 2 decades the reason for the countries in the region to remain “democratic” have lessened and therefore why would a country have to appease themselves to a system that isn’t inherent in their historical culture.

Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Singapore are all different forms of communist/dictatorial politics. The Philippines is run by the 10 major families. Indonesia probably by the 2 major groups (Megawati is still the boss, despite the news to the otherwise in international papers) and Prabowo and friends. And so forth.

So when I look at Amazing Thailand I’m not entirely surprised to see the route it’s gone down, don’t forget the military and friends said that they had a 20 year plan, and they are 7 years into it.  Will it continue? Sure, I don’t see protestors willing to push as far as the ones we’ve read about in Burma. HK protested as much as they wanted to and it’s still gone back to China. Cuba is now doing protests, as if things will really change. And here, well I’ve often argued to those that listen that the best strategy would be to break the coalition, the head of the snake is BJT followed by the Democrat party, were those 2 to break from PPRP then the power swings to PT + FF+ BJT + the democrat party. It could arguably be a face saving move by those 2 repugnant parties.

Should you care for the markets?

  • Yes, you’ll see the favoured win (see GULF – the perfect example of crony capitalism in Thailand) until they are replaced by a new group of friends. Politicians here are using capital markets more and more for guarantee of project wins and concessions. Think I’m wrong? I’m curious about why SKY has won all the IT projects, or where IMH came from to distribute Sinopharm, there are several names that should be on investors’ blacklists unless you’re part of the game. I wonder when the SEC will look into Kingsford Securities properly.

Legalising Sale of Rapid Tests
Question 1 – are these things even accurate? Unless all the medical papers we’ve seen over the past 6 months stating that these are rubbish are wrong and the Thai government is right.
Question 2 – Suppliers? Middle men? Let’s follow the money. I know the factory costs of these Testing kits. These retail prices are ridiculous. Lets go ask Anutin and Friends where their holdings are in the co’s/plc’s selling these kits.

As C-19 is resurging, the government is legalising the Rapid Antigen Tests (RAT). Previously, the test kits were only allowed for “professional” use i.e. in hospitals and clinics and even so, there was limited use. Earlier, Thai medical professionals preferred to test with the full RT-CPR (Real-Time polymerase chain reaction) which is more “accurate” and more expensive (THB2,300-8,000 per test). However, due to re-surging Covid and the over-crowded hospitals, the government is legalising the sales of the RAT kits for home use and self-testing.

Should you care for the markets? Sure it’ll smack BCH’s sales numbers.

It was a great Sunday:

  • Argentina beat Brazil
  • Poirer dominated McGregor
  • Djokovic won at Wimbledon
  • The Italians won Euro 2020.

There you go S.S. Happy Burfday. I’ll post more later 🙂

  1. Khun Pon, one of your best, ever. this is to be saved and savoured, again and again. what are your copyright restriction, for me distributing it to a number of fellow investors./friends. Thanks again !

  2. Good one Khun Pon. Corruption is why they all want to become politicians. Just look at the career politicians in the USA, they make Thailand look like boy scouts. Thank you for being the only sane Thai voice in the Land of Masked Frowns. Cheers, VS.

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