Random Thoughts: SCB, 2016, Fed, police rewards, Indonesia
- The fallout from SSI has hurt SCB in more ways than they care to admit, they’ve had to sell off assets throughout Thailand and overseas, one which caught a lot of traders eyes when there was a huge block transaction with SCC shares. SCB’s current CEO K. Arthid said “We sold all our holding in Siam Cement to the Crown Property Bureau,” Arthid said. “The Crown Property Bureau wanted to raise its stakes in Siam Cement. So, the shares changed hands in the same investor group.” * A lot of people both inside and out have been asking the same question re how the loan could’ve been approved in the first place when effectively everyone with half brain knew that it was a crazy deal. One of the smartest men I know question aloud “Will this be a KTB part 2? It’s a bigger loan after all.” Personally, in the end it doesn’t matter, SCB is still going to continue to benefit from Thailand’s economic growth over the coming decades.
- 2016 – A lot of people are wondering if 2016 will be any good for Thailand (I can’t comment on the world, its rather large…) and the bull inside me says 1) Government spending should accelerate strongly 2) With elections in 2017, the existing government will do all they can to ensure a lot of spending (into their pockets?) and leave every citizen with a “smile” 3) A weaker THB will at one point look attractive to international investors 4) Tourists are still coming by the bus load. or the bear inside me says 1) household debt still hasn’t declined 2) FDI into Thailand are only by those that are already here, nothing new, no expansion, 3) Exports will continue to weak with electronics continuing to decline and nothing to replace it. 4) Valuations still aren’t cheap, more fair than anything else.
- The US Fed – Ok I laugh at central bankers, make fun of them etc etc, but given the latest #’s w/ jobs declining in the US you can’t ignore the fact that perhaps Yellen was correct in postponing a rate hike.
- Police rewards – Another THB 3 mn reward to the policechief just before he retires and oh, Thakin’s son throws in another THB 7 mn just for good measure.
- I’m off to Jakarta next week for a couple of days, some 16 companies to visit, thus posting will be light, enjoy the week!
Source(s): Reuters
Xavi
I think investors are finally waking up to the threat of the TOT lawsuit potentially wiping a fifth of Advanc’s market cap out.
Does anyone have resources regarding the legal challenge, I would like to have a read of it?
Jay
I’d say the downtrend in ADVANC/INTUCH is more to do with net outflow of foreign capital rather than any worries over the TOT issue. Will be years before you see the impact of any court resolution.
Xavi
The market is up 1% today while Advanc and Intuch are down 1.5-3%. In the absence on other material news such as 4G delay, I could only presume that investors are only now digesting the TOT threat to sue Advanc which they made official last Wednesday.
Jay
Today’s drop is due to the rumor that TOT board members are refusing to move ahead on the Tower Company joint venture with AIS. In other words, they are using it as leverage. Investors don’t seem to like that!
Xavi
I just saw the article, however it does seem contradictory to what AIS is publicly saying which is that negotiations are on going…So much misinformation out there in the market hard to know what sources are reliable…
TONY
Hi Pon.
I own INTUCH. Is all this brouhaha really serious or will INTUCH be affected in a negative way? The reason I want to know is; I do dollar cost averaging on this stock, its a long-term large dividend holding stock for me, and it is time for me to make a decision whether to add more or give it a pass until this problem clears up. I appreciate any comment/opinion you can give.
Tony
Pon
Just finishing a post on it, will be up in a moment. Basically no issue the fault lies with TOT.