In the midst of thousands of meetings this week…random thoughts…specifically a POOP theme play.

Discussing with a few folks about the upcoming BoT Governors, now what if Vithai (Government Savings Bank) is the next one?
What stocks could be in play?
One thought was SAWAD – sure makes sense given the relationship between the two organisations. MTC should be a beneficiary as well especially if the GSB playbook is utilised and $ is flooded upcountry.

But what if they launch a national AMC?

My thinking = saves all the AMCs, JMT and BAM can moonshot
Thought effectively every financial can moonshot = as it will relieve the liquidity situation in the country. As they’ll just shift the bad debt to a new entity and done. It re-liquefies the system and is great for the country, similar to how BAM and SAAM relieved the issue. When you use the word relief in such a situation perhaps its best to think of the Thailand’s financial system as having far too much poop in the toilet and it’s completely clogged up.

A brand spanking new National AMC (plunger) will release the hardest poop in the toilet and the money can flow again.

Side q: Won’t this be competition for JMT and friends?
That is one viewpoint, but in reality there is SOOOO MUCH POOP
The big AMCs can only buy THB 20 bn a year … max. There’s at least THB 150 bn in Bad POOP.
And now JMT and friends can’t buy anymore because there are no buyer’s of the poop that they bought, because the banks are not financing it.

So go to your BoT friends and say loudly and proudly, Make Thailand Poop Again.

Now that’s the random thought – if you want the economist version… see below…created by Grok with the following prompt “Rewrite the below in the style of the Economist”

Thailand’s financial sector is grappling with a surfeit of non-performing loans (NPLs), clogging the arteries of its banking system. Speculation is rife about the next governor of the Bank of Thailand (BoT) and the potential appointment of a candidate from the Government Savings Bank (GSB). Such a move could have profound implications for the country’s financial markets, particularly for stocks tied to lending and asset management.

A GSB-affiliated governor might prioritise liquidity injections, particularly in rural areas, mirroring the bank’s historical playbook. This could benefit firms like Srisawad Corporation (SAWAD), given its close ties to GSB, and Muangthai Capital (MTC), which could capitalise on upcountry lending opportunities. Both stand to gain from a policy tilt towards easing credit constraints.

More intriguing is the prospect of a national asset management company (AMC). Thailand’s financial system is burdened with an estimated 150 billion baht in NPLs—bad debts that have overwhelmed existing AMCs like JMT Network Services and Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM). These firms, constrained by limited annual purchasing capacity of roughly 20 billion baht, face a secondary problem: banks are increasingly reluctant to finance their acquisitions. A national AMC could act as a plunger, unclogging the system by absorbing toxic assets, much as BAM and Sukhumvit Asset Management did during past crises. This would not only re-liquefy the financial sector but also potentially spark a rally in financial stocks, with JMT and BAM poised for significant gains.

Would a national AMC threaten existing players? Unlikely. The sheer volume of distressed assets far exceeds the capacity of private AMCs, and a state-backed entity could complement rather than compete, freeing up balance sheets and restoring lending momentum. In effect, it would flush the system, allowing money to flow freely again.

The BoT’s next moves will be pivotal. A bold strategy to tackle Thailand’s bad-debt deluge could herald a new era of financial stability, provided it avoids merely shifting the problem downstream. For now, investors eyeing SAWAD, MTC, JMT, and BAM might find opportunity in the unclogging.

Source: https://grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5_c86d1c7a-22ea-4017-b1d0-6b6798d8a096