1. Take a breath: The 90-day tariff pause agreed to by the US and China allows global supply chains time to exhale. The temporary agreement between the US and China to slash the severe reciprocal tariffs imposed on each other and to cooperate to prevent further disruption to the global economy should have a positive impact on trade, according to an analyst. The move should ease the strain on global supply chains, which faced uncertainty as shippers did not know whether their goods would be accepted due to the US tariffs. Bangkok Post
2. Bank rate cut to trim interest margin: Large local banks have lowered their interest rates in response to the Bank of Thailand’s recent policy rate cut, a move that is expected to compress the banking sector’s net interest margin (NIM) this year. Bangkok Post
3. Govt to launch domestic tourism campaign to promote tourism in 55 provinces during June –Sept green season (raining) with various promos, including discount airfares and lucky draws, part of effort to boost tourism rev to Bt1.17trnl this year.
4. Digital handout on hold: Govt to shift cash to fund other priorities. The government has postponed the third phase of the 10,000-baht handout programme to instead spend the funds on solving structural issues and investing in infrastructure projects, insisting the project is not scrapped but only delayed. Bangkok Post
5. NESDC slashes growth forecast: Downgrades outlook to 1.8% from 2.8%. The state planning unit has slashed its economic growth forecast for this year to 1.8%, down from its earlier projection of 2.8% due to the impact of the global trade war. Bangkok Post
6. BOT’s cut its foreign arrivals forecast this year from 39.5m to 27.5m, attributed to a drop in Chinese visitors to 5m, vs 6.7m last yr and 11m in 2019.
7. Banks’ outstanding loan port contracted for the third consecutive quarter, mainly on higher debt repayment and a decline in new SME and consumer loans. Overall loan growth was a negative 1.3% in 1Q25, vs -0.4% qoq, NPLs rose to 2.9%, or Bt548.1b, from 2.78% in 4Q mainly from SMEs and housing loans. Yet, banking system remain resilient with robust levels of capital, LLP, and liquidity: BOT.
8. Cabinet approves a wage panel’s plan to stipulate daily rates for 13 skilled professions, such as truck drivers, tour bus operators, C-language programmers and air con technicians, varying from Bt485 – Bt800/d.
9. Health Ministry urges guard up against the XEC variant of Covid-19 as it is now spreading 7x faster than influenza, over the past week 43,213 hospital patients were recorded, 35.5% increase from the previous week: positive healthcare.
10. Cabinet has approved Bt3.78trln budget bill for FY26 proposed by the Budget Bureau. IT will be tabled to the House for its 1st reading scheduled for May 28-30. Govt is ready to explain the rationale for the bill, citing PM advisor Songkram Kitlertphairoj.

Bonus 5

1. Stormy outlook: Analysts predict earnings for listed Thai companies to drop 6% year-on-year in the first half, with headwinds in Q2 and Q3. Analysts expect listed companies’ earnings to drop 6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 amid global trade tensions and tourism weakness, with serious headwinds expected this quarter and next. The US tariff spikes have begun to erode corporate profitability, with many firms now grappling with higher operating costs tied to these new tax measures. Compounding the issue is a slowdown in tourism, traditionally a major economic driver, which is in its low season, placing additional pressure on earnings. Bangkok Post
2. Downbeat developers: Listed Thai residential property firms reported annual declines in the first quarter as the market slumped. Nearly all Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)-listed residential developers with quarterly revenue of at least 2.5 billion baht reported year-on-year declines in both revenue and net profit in the first quarter, mainly due to the economic slowdown and higher mortgage loan rejection rates. Bangkok Post
3. High household debt dents auto sector: Thailand’s automotive industry remains volatile as household debt is still elevated, though domestic vehicle sales managed to rise slightly in April for the first time in 23 months, according to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI). Bangkok Post
4. Thai traders ramp up foreign stock investments: Thais’ trading of depositary receipts (DRs) has doubled in value this year, as an underwhelming domestic bourse led local investors to increase their investment in foreign stocks, says the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). The average daily trading value of DRs, an instrument that lets investors gain exposure in foreign securities, doubled year-onyear to roughly 560 million baht as of May 19. The total market capitalisation of DRs has grown by 25% during the period to 36 billion baht. Bangkok Post
5. Tourism stimulus likely a damp squib: The recently approved tourism stimulus is unlikely to have a significant impact on the stagnant sector during the low season given the limited budget allocation, although aviation and hospitality stocks may benefit in the short term, says Daol Securities. The stimulus package is part of a broader emergency response plan aimed at counteracting the economic impact of the US import tariff hikes. The tourism-related measures comprise three initiatives. Bangkok Post