And just look at how quickly even a large cap such as IVL can fall. It’s their margins, the normal cycle in their industry. What has surprised me this is the continued strength in the telco sector.

3Q19 #’s are starting to come out, its going to be bad reading for most firms starting first with the financials which have already started reporting.

  1. Bank earnings have held up surprisingly well, certainly doesn’t look like the banks are heading into a recessionary phase, petrochem will be a disaster, margins have hit decade lows and continues downward. IVL will have massive writedowns in the future considering many acquisitions were made when margins were high, much higher than today (Huntsman will be a disaster for them, timing wise)

    What is up with SCB throwing money down the drain by lending to POS Cos? Pace the latest one…

    • peter satrapa-binder

      Yes, when seeing the first few banks’ result i thought that they did not look that bad, some of them were rather good really…

      but let’s see how the other sectors will look.

  2. banks: hmm, I bgt. in to TMB for the Rights. Aweful looking Q3. any thoughts on mgt being capable of pulling off the benefits from the merger?

    • Tmb at current values looks attractive but it doesnt have any provisionng cushion as the coverage ratio is already at their mandated minimum of 140%. Their profit would have looked far worse if they didnt stick their gain on sale of the TMBAM into LLPs last year.

      Merger will be big positive over time as hopefully they can cut the fat out of the operations.

  3. Great work on the coverage. Two suggestions from an avid reader:
    1) Can we help create a Facebook/ Line / Telegram/ Whatsapp group to discuss Thai Stock related elements in English. The information available to retail traders (in English) is limited and this could be a way to kickstart a change. Incase we know more ways to obtain such content would be great to share!
    2) Have we got any thoughts on trading TFEX products (Index Futures (S50, Options etc.). Would be a good way to cover these as well as international market sentiment.

    • I’m wary of investor forums (burned more than once back in North America). hpwever, its a good idea as we seem to be prettyy isolated bunch of retail investors out here. Of you options, I suggest FB (love/hate).

    • Here in lies the logistical issue
      1. A Web forum was discussed w/ friends in the beginning when I started this page…some…8 years ago? Too many companies, how does one manage it and unless you have an active ~100 ppl then it would be interesting. The site today maybe gets 400 unique views per day which isn’t enough to translate into a decent forum.
      2. A lot of the time you’ll see that genuine insights will come from less than 10 people (I’ve noticed this from emails, tweets, comments here) and the rest are comments on news/rumours.

      But lets say if 20 people here are willing to contribute with actual information/analysis on companies then ok it could make sense.

      International markets – Whilst I follow them, I doubt I would add much value add unless its vn/phil/indo. And I’ve thought about expanding this site to do a bit more of that…but again I manage my energy and this isn’t my day job, I use this more just to rant and rave and every once in a while post a random thought which I find interesting and it helps me work my way through some thoughts.

      TFEX – leveraged short term trading, go for it if you wish to. I do trade TFEX pa but very much on a case by case basis for events rather than trading.
      Options – outside of the nearest to expiration most are illiquid and w/ basic math you can figure out which ones are worth it.

      But thanks for the thought/comment, I do appreciate it.

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