Before a quick muse on 3Q21 #’s, let’s have a quick look at what I wrote for 2Q21…a quick recap: 2Q21

Just look at that YoY and even QoQ performance, not a surprise for the overall market. It’s the next 6-18 months that have me scratching my head for the overall market, certain sectors are going to continue doing well/improve i.e. energy/commodities, transports, hotels, but we won’t see such as large a jump, actually allow me to correct myself…2Q22-3Q22 is going to look far better regionally than 2Q21-3Q21, should there not be another alphabet flu that makes governments try to implement ridiculous zero covid policies.

A big surprise in the future may be telco’s, which are only 3 listed players, should there only be 2 listed players in the future….

So a pat on the back for myself re the telco’s, I still think that the sector is going to continue doing well with minimised competition.

For 3Q21, the swings QoQ and YoY are wild, just look at the chart below!

  • 46% of companies had a positive QoQ
  • 55% of companies had a positive YoY for 3Q
  • 65% of companies had a positive 9M
  • 27% of companies had a positive for QoQ, YoY, and 9M
  • Note: There may be data integrity issues

As of writing the Nu variant, or the Omicron variant, whatever the vaulted and incorruptible WHO decided to name it…came to the news and now some countries are quickly locking down…so I’m still scratching my head for the next 3-15 months, though strongly (and flexibly) still hold to the viewpoint that 2Q21 – 3Q21 are going to look great in comparison driven by the same sectors. And so with this volatile market, cash gives great optionality…and those that have done well over the past 18 months (i.e. new “tech” players) are going to rock n roll in the eyes of investors (IIG, JMART, SABUY, BE8, BBIK, VCOM, SECURE) or my favourite caterlisation/market share grab ideas. Amusing times.

  1. well done
    another overview is that every time there is bad news crypto takes a dump
    but quickly recovers

    you can short or put a stop lose in and almost guarantee a market knee jerk

    buy on the dip and a matter of days weeks you’re looking at 20%

    amazing markets

    • Every Fund Manager I know of in TH has been trading crypto and loving it (or head banging when selling too early…)

      The action reminds of the equity market in TH during 2003, 2007, 2012/2013.

      Though I have been thinking for the past few weeks that if more thai “coins” come related to public companies that they’ll be indicators for price movements, just look at how KUB moved pre its whitepaper/pre the SCB announcement, how JFIN moved pre JMART Group’s announcements. In other words, we may be able to use it to track insider trading.

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