Byron Wien – Latest Commentary – The bond market message
You don’t have to agree with someone to enjoy their writing and thought process and this has always been the case for me with Bryon Wein, here’s a snippet and a link to the full commentary
Why have interest rates declined when debt has increased and the economy is growing? I have long believed that at least part of the answer is the considerable expansion of central bank balance sheets. The surfeit of liquidity around the world may be playing a role in keeping interest rates low. Central banks in the U.S., continental Europe, the United Kingdom and Japan have increased their balance sheets by $10 trillion since 2008. In my opinion, as much as three-quarters of those funds found their way into financial assets, inflating price-earnings ratios and keeping interest rates low. Only one quarter of that increase was invested in the real economies of those countries and regions that were the intended beneficiaries of the monetary expansion. Now many of the managers of that capital are risk-adverse and are searching for places to park their money until the outlook improves. That is why you have negative interest rates in Europe and Japan.
Source: Blackstone

Howard Marks – Latest Memo – Lines in the sand
This memo isn’t a discussion on investment process but a discussion on how financing can impact the returns and how investors should really understand Fund Performance Metrics
One fund with a higher IRR didn’t necessarily outperform another. And, provocatively, a fund that used a subscription line and came in with a high IRR may not have done as good a job – or made its LPs as much money – as one that didn’t use a line (or used a line less extensively) and reported a lower IRR.

Source: Oaktree Capital

Being Dead is Bad for Business – Stanley Weiss
I’ve had the pleasure of meeting this gentleman for the past few years during his annual trips to Thailand. So I’m naturally biased in recommending his memoir which is humourous, adventurous and insightful all at the same time.
Stanley A. Weiss was formerly Chairman of American Premier, Inc., a mining, refractories, chemicals, and mineral processing company. He is Founding Chairman of Business Executives for National Security (BENS), a nonpartisan organization of senior executives who use the best practices of business to strengthen the nation’s security

Source: Amazon


  1. Wien is always worth reading – a brilliant man! … In this case, he covers all the significant issues, but clearly avoids deducing any conclusion from the tangle of points. He is a great politician – uttering a host of words leading no where in particular… Hence I draw a political lack of confidence down stream. He carefully skirts useful advice! Folks at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are expert at grabbing attention – but don’t bother acting on their “lines”…….. it’ll kill you

  2. The economist with the most frightening record (see his book, “Irrational Exuberance”) over the past 15-20 years is Robert Shiller–self-confessed behaviorist. He contributes columns from time to time to the “Project Syndicate” website which has experienced a nervous breakdown since the election, but mai pen arai, Shiller is the focus. His most recent column is unusually nebulous (for him) and worth at least 3 (6 in my case) readings–or none, if he’s of no interest. My latest take, see last para., is exponentially bearish, viz. “very different [price] levels.” Emphasis mine on “very.”–shiller-2017-01?utm_source=Project+Syndicate+Newsletter&utm_campaign=6e820ad27f-shiller_illusions_driving_asset_prices_1_22_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_73bad5b7d8-6e820ad27f-93499329#comments

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