If I were to do a correlation between every trip I take to a different continent with political events in Thailand the result would be near 1.0. So a coup has happened this time (previous time was the flooding, before that was the May 2010 fights, and before that was the airport shutdown, my traveling is a really good barometer), and for a brief moment I felt like Dr. T (a coup while in NYC and then a stopover in Dubai).

I’m still digesting my thoughts on how this all will play out but it looks like the military and the “powers that be” have spent the past 3 years meticulously planning this and their implementation thus far has been swift and efficient.

So ok quickly about the market, just quickly, lets see how the SET performs post a coup.





A few things to note:

  • The SET has only been around since 1987
  • Looks like the 1st Quarter post a coup is great, 2nd quarter is rubbish


  1. Great to have you back and thanks for posting again. I couldn’t believe that you would take a break from posting exactly during “Coup week” and checked frequently in.

    Looking forward to your insightful comments on Coup and how things will unfold next couple of weeks and months. Obviously market has hardly moved. Is it still only way up?? And is downward risk still very low?


    • Hahaha, its not like I planned to take a holiday to coincide with a coup! Regardless, i’m sure another one will happen within the next decade, its the Thai way.

      Will have a couple posts re the coup up in the next few days, is downside risk low? Depends upon what you’re looking @, anything with a high dividend should be safe, same goes for businesses that are mainly export related. Also I despite all the negative political rhetoric surrounding the coup, I think it’s a positive outcome, this general reminds me of Lee Kwan Yew and that isn’t so bad.

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