I still hold to the viewpoint that everything is going to look better QoQ until 2H21, and as such the markets will rally.

In Thailand – the protests are priced in, hence the drop in the past 2-3 weeks plus the usual regional fund outflow.

It’s earnings season time, latest one today is CPN which only had a -30% YoY in profits. Big boys are going to hoover up the market place.

American politics – I had that bet on Trumpy. Let’s see how the legal challenges go, remember Gore vs Bush? That lasted until December. Though it’s odd that the narrative is that markets in Asia are pro-Biden/Democrat. I fear another war if they are in office…

  1. peter satrapa-binder

    @ American politics: i think the markets are up because they eventially see more stability and reliability coming back into american politics – not so much because either democrats or republicans won. with trump one just never knew what he was going to do next.

    and as for starting wars: this has been US foreign politics for a long time – under whatever administration. and i guess trump would loved to start a war against Iran, but was stopped…

    of course all bets are off regarding what will now happen in the USA until january 2021. the legal challenges might not be the worst things among those…

    • Based upon his 4 year track record, granted short – military spending went up but no wars.

      Trump’s policies are straight fwd, less regulation in the US, lower taxes, and a couple of tweets to give us all a headache wondering what on earth he’s on about. Biden – less clear on his policies, other than what we read from the media i.e. ridiculous “green energy” policies, higher taxes, return to international organisations WTO, NATO etc…

      At the end of the day, I don’t need to care about the outcome, I’ll just invest accordingly.

      • peter satrapa-binder

        to be frank, i could do without the ‘couple of tweets to give us a headache wondering…’! 🙂

        especially as that usually meant ‘a couple of tweets PER DAY’.

        regarding ‘green energy’: why ridiculous? even if it would be only about the potential profits to be made – there’s money in ‘traditional’ (fossil) fuels and there’s money in ‘new’ (renewable) energy industries. there will be just a shift – and the companies who do not shift in time will just go under – but that’s business!

        higher taxes – well, there will be a small shock for companies in the beginning, but to be frank, a little bit higher taxation and on the other side a little bit more social security for the citizens wouldn’t be that bad for the usa – he is not talking socialism or communism here…

        return to international organisations: WTO, i think it’s good. NATO – well i am not that enthusiastic here, as i feel that europe/the EU has gotten to dependent on the USA in this respect…

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