Hello Hello Hello Mr. Market, Uncle Pon is back. And what’s changed? Thai politics is still messy, yawnz, earnings are meh, yawnz, DELTA is still the only game in town, yawnz…but what if, what if …

1. The border wars ongoing at Myanmar and Cambodia are over? Will Thai companies be able to recuperate their lost earnings? For some companies its 10-15% of earnings
2. The next government could be something decent, Anutin has played the game well and is approved by the higher ups, means that the military and the police factions will give him support, in this interim government he’s put together a few decent people, what if, just what if, Thailand has stable politics and policies for the next 4 years?
3. Tourism has recovered – ex chyneeze, what if this gets better with the mainland? There are finally crackdowns on the scam centers in Cambodia and Myanmar – it’s hit the news etc etc, if there’s no fear about visiting Thailand will the mainlanders return?
4. Petrochem – involution baby, it’s started, will it continue?
5. National AMC – it’s cumminggg hard. But in an odd quasi form with some random partnerships here and there, part of me was hoping they’d take the communist route like Vietnam, and just put chuck it all into 1 big bucket, and figure it out later, as I only care to see stocks go up and it would be positive for liquidity.

But what if, what if…

• Thailand remains Thailand and there is continued infighting until the cows come home. And until there is a proper crash in the business environment – several bankruptcies – the domestic economy remains on life support with a stagnating economy and there is no lifeline.
• I still wonder what happens w/ the next succession.

But but but

I’ve often thought that the capital that is sloshing around in N. Asia will at one point make its way to SE Asia, but this would only occur after N. Asia has had its massive pump – which it has…and so…? let’s see.