Thailand has gone orange, the wave that started with Chadchart dominating in Bangkok is continuing with the Move Forward party winning throughout the country. It’s a beautiful slap in the face for the incumbents – Pheu Thai & the military and friends.
Earnings season is about to finish (today!), a summary will come later in the week…random thoughts – several at the moment (https://twitter.com/gvancomp/status/1657944286334418946?s=20). If the government is formed by Move Fwd, the market will be absolutely dog shit, not because the economy is weak but because the Kingpins such as GULF, which has been a key driver of the stock market returns over the past 7 years, are inextricably linked to the military & friends and they’ll drag the market down. But what if, a big and beautiful what if, the monopolies and oligopolies become weakened by new entrants? The economy is going be fantastic. This may not necessarily show in the market over the next 1-5 years, but it’ll lead to a far healthier economic environment for the country, but if not, as I like to say, it’ll be Malaysia 2.0 but with Thai spices.