Thailand has gone orange, the wave that started with Chadchart dominating in Bangkok is continuing with the Move Forward party winning throughout the country. It’s a beautiful slap in the face for the incumbents – Pheu Thai & the military and friends.

Earnings season is about to finish (today!), a summary will come later in the week…random thoughts – several at the moment ( If the government is formed by Move Fwd, the market will be absolutely dog shit, not because the economy is weak but because the Kingpins such as GULF, which has been a key driver of the stock market returns over the past 7 years, are inextricably linked to the military & friends and they’ll drag the market down. But what if, a big and beautiful what if, the monopolies and oligopolies become weakened by new entrants? The economy is going be fantastic. This may not necessarily show in the market over the next 1-5 years, but it’ll lead to a far healthier economic environment for the country, but if not, as I like to say, it’ll be Malaysia 2.0 but with Thai spices.

  1. peter satrapa-binder

    @ market will be dog shit/kingpin down: well, they might be down – and thereby dragging the overall index down – but it may well be a boon for the not-being-kingpin stocks and their prices.

    but let’s see what will pay out in the next weeks. the election was only the first step on a long, winding road.

  2. bloody marvellous. I am sure you thoughts will be filled with what ifs in the investments field. will there be an uptick in foreign funds flowing into a democratic political scene? Good news for Property and tourism? or am i getting ahead of myself. staying safely on the dividend yield route, subject to solid fundamentals. . no need to reply, just expressing my glee, after so many $hite governments.

    • peter satrapa-binder

      knowing thailand, i’d say better wait for a few weeks – maybe even for 1 or 2 months – until all the dust has settled and the future political direction of thailand will be clear before making any investment decisions.

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