The 3rd US debt ceiling, end of the world risk, I’ve experienced has passed. Yawn. At least I’ll stop receiving messages about the risks of default from junior sales/analysts that haven’t seen this game before. In 2 years, we’ll start to see the headlines again..

I’m looking forward to seeing:

  1. The local political issue calm down as the government gets formed – It is ridiculous how long this takes…
  2. The news of a recession die down…or just actually hit the market and its done, and recovery # 1mn in the history of modern economics starts again…
  3. An end to Ukraine/Russia.
  4. The Fed hiking for the final time in June and then taking a wait & see. (note I’m $hit scared if they have to start cutting rates…)

This is the period in the markets where everything is going to be news flow driven because no earnings are coming out until August. So let’s sit back and enjoy the show.

  1. peter satrapa-binder

    1.) At least the EC verified the election results faster than expected (last Thursday?). but that all will take long is not exactly news.

    3.) Russia/Ukraine war ending might take a long time still.

    regarding the US debt ceiling increase, i kinda hoped that the republicans in the USA wouldn’t have been stupid enough to block it. but there’s never any absolute guarantee (on avoiding stupidities).

    • Russia/Ukraine – I still suspect it’ll take another 2 years, but one can hope that a negotiation is made.

      Debt Ceiling – part of me wishes that we see a technical default…more chaos and volatility is great for active management…

      • peter satrapa-binder

        @ Russia/Ukraine: Well, however it ends, both countries will be much damaged by that point.

        @ Debt Ceiling: Although there is still a small chance that the deal will still fail in congress, I believe it’s more or less done. but sure, the chance for profits is generally better in volatile times. 🙂

          • peter satrpa-binder

            plus ukraine has a demography which is as bad as russia’s, so even without the war it wouldn’t have looked that great both countries’ future.

  2. Russia and Ukraine are important suppliers of many commodities. But I have lived and worked in Russia for over ten years, know the situation well. Two years is very optimistic. Just assume there will be some kind of fortified border with little movement at some point. Hopefully less bombings and missiles. Peace and normality is not on the cards. Internal turmoil in Russia (if Putin dies) is also something to look out for.

    • Yes, I presume a negotiation + something similar to n/s korea, and/or crimea – doesn’t mean it’s 100% over, but just off the news…4 years in total is within the realm of possibility.

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