Ok, that’s not quite accurate.

But here’s the news…

SF Holding to Take Over Kerry Logistics for $2.3 Billion – Bloomberg

SF Holding Co., one of the largest Chinese package-delivery services, is seeking to acquire control of tycoon Robert Kuok’s Kerry Logistics Network Ltd. in a HK$17.6 billion ($2.3 billion) deal for its global expansion.

The impact is at the shareholder level of Kerry Logistics (KLN; 636 HK), which owns a 52.1% stake in KEX.

636 HK – 5 year chart

636 HK – #s

Here’s the SET announcement by KEX 1616NWS020120240930010239E.pdf (set.or.th)

  • KLN will distribute a special dividend of 0.519 share of KEX for every KLN share. As S.F. Holdings (SF) owns 53.82% stake in KLN, SF will become a direct shareholder of KEX with a 26.8% stake.
  • KEX will also be owned by KLN’s other shareholders.
  • KLN will no longer hold KEX shares after the transaction.
  • As SF will own KEX above the 25% stake threshold, it would trigger a mandatory tender offer by SF. The offer price is to be set at Bt5.5 per KEX share.
  • For KLN’s minority shareholders, they can choose either to receive 0.5019 KEX shares or receive Bt2.76 cash for each KLN share they own. This transaction is subject to KLN obtaining a waiver of its tender obligation from the Thai SEC. It is expected to submit a waiver application at the earliest in January 2024. Thai SEC is then expected to consider the matter within 30 days.

Why does this matter?

KEX TB – 5 year

KEX’s share price has been rubbish since it went public and…

KEB TB – #’s

….it’s not just due to the shit market, their #’s margins have been awful.

One analysis sent to me is the following (source unknown)

This is in a way a transfer of KEX (Thai express delivery asset) from KLN to the parent SF. KLN’s focus will then be in international freight forwarding and supply chain businesses. Business of international express and e-commerce logistics cross-border in Southeast Asia will be led by SF, which has up to 5x larger equity base and 6x higher EBITDA than KLN. SF is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China covering 99.4% cities and serving 537m individual members.

So what?

If you’re going to bet on KEX TB now, you’re betting that China (SF) will beat Flash, Shopee, and Thai Post. Which is entirely possible…hence the pump in the share price.

So it’s now adopted by another mother?

That’s right, they’ve decided to discard KEX TB from a listco and to put it under a private co

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