Prayuth is not an idiot, he’s been in control of Thailand with his buddies for the past 9 years. Anyone in charge of a country for that long has to be one wily clever sob. But has this incredible intelligence translated into an amazing stock market performance for Thailand?
The clever folks here have conducted the most in-depth analysis in the history of the world in order to uncover this gem for you. Before we delve into the deepest depths of the analysis, this is the summary: SHIT.
- In order to shorten this post, we shall use the following dates & acronyms, the Friday before the coup, 22 August 2014, Before Prayuth (“BPee”) and the latest date, 2 June 2023 (“NOW”).
- All data was pulled from Bloomberg and based upon the SET Index Members at the time. Any mistakes in data is 1000% Bloomberg’s fault.
Here’s the wily facts:
- The market capitalisation of the SET Index increased from THB 14 trn BPee, to THB 18.7 trn NOW!
- The PE re-rated/expanded from 17x BPee to 20x NOW!
- Wait this sounds really good, how could you say it was SHIT?
The low-down dirty facts:
- BPee: 1,556
- NOW: 1,531
- An amazing -1.6%
- BPee: 31.94
- NOW: 34.8
- An amazing -8.2%
Thus that’s -10%…but what about this amazing total market capitalisation & PE re-rating?? Surely this means in the eyes of investors that he was amazing!?!?
And you could be right…however…
- Total # of listed entities BPee: 514, NOW: 669
- In 2022 & 2023 there were a total of 27 new listings w/ a combined mkt cap of THB 0.6 trn (you do your own homework to find the rest)
The POWER of DELTA & GULF
- BPee – DELTA was a 13x PE stock, w/ a market cap of THB 77 bn back in 2014, NOW it’s a THB 1.2 trn mkt cap w/ a PE of 99x.
- GULF wasn’t listed BPee, it was still a small little company with a few crony capitalist projects, NOW it’s a THB 0.5 trn mkt cap w/ several crony capitalist projects and owns ais (ADVANC, INTUCH)
- Strip these two out and the PE of the SET Index NOW is 13.4x.
- Strip these two out & the mkt cap is THB 16.9 trn.
- Strip out DELTA and the sum of market caps of all names from 2014 (THB 14trn) is now THB 13.2 trn (-6%) – Note yes I did include the mergers of BJC, DTAC, HEMRAJ, BECL/BMCL etc.
- The SET Index has thus de-rated from BPee to NOW from 17x to 13.4x. (-21%)
- The market has dropped. (-1.6%)
- The market cap excl DELTA has dropped. (-6%)
- The currency has dropped. (-8.2%)
- The market has de-rated (-21%)
- Strip out the conundrum that is DELTA, the crony that is GULF and all new IPO’s, the total market cap is flat/down.
- But in the history books of Thailand, he’ll go down as the longest serving PM who brought us smiles 🙂
- That’s just shit.