• This week we were blessed with the earnings results of both dtac and advanc, both telling very different stories. Here’s some quick thoughts
  • The sector – A massive clusterf**k at the moment, no bank seems willing to back JAS, even though they continually say in public that they’ll pay, but….their balance sheet is too small, it’s legally too late to raise capital, and there’s no bank guarantee. The NBTC, the competent fellows that they are, are saying the silliest things in the public i.e. reauction @ the same previous closing price, all parties will pay, reauction is possible…would be good to have a streamlined viewpoint coming out of them…. True is crying like a 5 year old that won’t get his/her ice cream about any and everything from Digital TV, to the auction, to AIS blocking people from joining them. Can you imagine what would happen if True were to take things to another level? It will take the whole year before this is sorted out…
  • DTAC – There appears to be no love for this name, earnings were rubbish, the minimum dividend payout ratio was dropped from 80% to 50% and every one is forecasting doom n gloom part from a few brave analysts..

dtac dtacchart

  • Advanc’s earnings came out differently, a positive surprise, full dividend payout ratio (thus trailing yield is ~8%) maintained BUT every analyst seems to have the viewpoint that their earnings in 2016 will decline some -25%-30% on the  core assumption that they’ll lose a tonne of their 2G subscribers to TRUE . If you believe in that story go ahead, but if you believe that they’ll be able to retain the majority of those 2G customers…then it may still be paying a high divvy throughout the entire year…. hmmmm

advancchart advancdata

Unemployment rate

  • Thailand has had the lowest unemployment rate for years and Bloomberg has put together a decent piece attempting to explain why, here are some pretty charts and quotes.

thaiworkforce“More than 40 percent of Thailand’s population is engaged in agriculture, where there is a high degree of underemployment and off-season unemployment.”


“Thailand’s fertility rate from 2010-2015 is estimated at 1.4 by the United Nations Population Fund compared with 3.4 in the Philippines. Plus, its population aged 60 years and above rose to about 15 percent last year from under 7 percent in 1994, so there are more people retiring and fewer joining the workforce. In comparison, Japan, where more than a quarter of the population is over 65, has a jobless rate of above 3 percent.”

Source: Bloomberg 


There’s been a lot of chatter, some of which I’d rather not write about….as I’d prefer to not be invited for attitude adjustment or disappear from existence, but here’s one that should be fine..a good analysis on the attempts in the past and existing constitutions on how the powers that be will try to secure their future in Thailand

“In conclusion, from 1997 to 2016, there were many attempts by constitution-drafters to give the Constitutional Court exceptional powers, such as the power to guide the appointment of a prime minister in times of crisis, following “constitutional practice in the democratic regime of government with the King as Head of State”.”

Source: Kyoto Review

  1. 2 things regarding 4G that is of interest, now AIS has a 2G roaming deal in place with DTAC, there is no reason for True to hurry the payment for the 900mhz license.

    Secondly, It seems like DTAC and AIS may ignite a price war for subscribers knowing the shambles True’s balance sheet will look like and that they can ill afford a cut to their earnings.

  2. Brave analysts of DTAC, indeed. I believe the local headline was something along the lines of “DTAC 4Q revenues down 47%, Biggest Drop Since 1839.”

    The same day Reuters released that report, they released the following as well:

    Strange. What a difference 9 months make….

    The easiest, cheapest way to enhance cash is to cut yield, esp one as absurd as DTAC’s. As it turns out the cut was well-timed, you won’t see Telenor going to the richest sovereign wealth fund in the world, hat in hand.

    At present, they have zero exposure to The Bid. Priceless.

    In connection with which, the big cheese at NBTC has no choice, really: he is going to have to buy another hairpiece…or resign.

    Laissez les bons temps rouler.

  3. Re AIS’s earnings, I was surprised to see analysts’s call so bearish as well. But they mentioned that the main causes will be from “TOT partnership” opex rather than 2G subs lost.

    Let me know what u think on this, Pon.

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