Despite it being a start of a new year the same questions/scenarios remain…
- What if the ISM figures in the US stay below 50? Does it lead to a recession in the US? Forces the feds to not raise rates but instead cut them? If the USD declines? Oil prices recover? Capital flows back into Asia?
- Low oil prices may hurt a few producers, but its an interesting fact that more people are employed in renewables than in oil & gas (Bloomberg)…so what if the US Economy continues to do well, then China’s #’s positively surprise consensus? World economic growth continues to be vibrant, Europe & Asia surprise?
- Thailand specific – Will elections finally occur in 2017? If oil prices stabilise will the energy sector have a decent bounceback? Will the government’s fiscal spending have the positive impact that they hope, decrease NPL’s and provisioning in the banks? Resulting in recoveries in construction, materials and financials? Will ADVANC and DTAC shrug off the overtures of JAS? Will the free cash given to the upcountry population finally result in spending returning upcountry? Can Chinese tourists hit 35% of total tourist arrivals? If yes to all the above, then it could be a +20% year….
- Well you get the drift…we normally sit down and think of every scenario possible, think of the probabilities and then see what will unfold and adjust accordingly…
Other random thoughts
- It’s sad that the first thought that came to a lot of my contemporaries minds when Thailand’s Government Savings Bank (GSB) announced a Private Equity Fund of THB 2 bn (Dealstreetasia) that we wondered how corrupt it’s going to be? Here’s the optimist in me hoping that this won’t be a farce…
- The Thailand future fund … effectively another Vayupak fund
- Where’s this Thailand sovereign wealth fund? It first hit the news in 2008, then more recently there was news that the government will put all the government enterprises under one holding co, if it actually happens will Thai airways finally recap? Or is there not enough time left for this administration
- There’s an interesting chart sent to me yesterday (I think it’s from Maybank) shows that Thai 10 year bond yields are yielding less than Singapore’s 10 year yield, so investors trust the Thai government more than the SG government? Or accept the fact that even though there’s only 9% foreign holding in Thailand’s bond market there’s plenty of liquidity here looking for yield?