Stocks in the news (aot, asw, bh, gpsc) 25.04.24
AOT reported 7 days passenger traffic via 6 airports under management during Songkran fest (Apr 11-17) +22.7% yoy to 2.49m travelers, aircrafts movement +15.3% yoy to 14,934 flights.
Comment: And voila….2025 is going to be higher. And people still don’t believe it yet.
ASW anticipates 2Q turnaround from completion of 4 condos total Bt6.6b, tailwind from ongoing transfer of 2 SDH projects.
Comment: Well…not sure about this company – and how it isn’t bankrupt yet.
BH reports Bt1.98b 1Q, +25.3 yoy, beat Bt1.78b consensus, thanks to robust traffic from both Thai & non-Thai patients, with 33.5 : 66.5 revenue mix, net margin came in at 30.2% vs 26% 1Q23.
GPSC teams up with Denmark partner, SEABORG, to study SMR Technology (Small Modular Reactor) to promote clean energy & reliable power gen, enhance national security.
Comment: Nuclear is coming….finally and then the cost of power will be great (for users) again. But it’s not for our generation…(i’m in my 40s), our kids will benefit..we get to suffer with the stupid renewable $hit
peter satrapa-binder
concerning nuclear energy: admittedly it’s clean concerning CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions but the big elephant in the room here is the disposal or storing of nuclear waste. and if that matter cannot be solved satisfactorily, the next generation will have to handle that problem in the next few decades latest.
Pon
Has not been an issue for decades…gen 1 nuclear stations were already amazing, gen 2 is what exists in EU and US, China is installing Gen 4….
peter satrapa-binder
sure, the technologies are safer and better now, but they still produce some nuclear waste. so, even if it’s much less with the newer stations, over the decades it still would pile up somewhat.
of course, if we would manage to use nuclear fusion for energy generation in meaningful volumes in the near-term future, that would be a total game changer.
Pon
Storage of nuclear waste has proven to be safe (if not better) than the storage of any other form of power and its byproducts – for now.
Peter Satrapa-Binder
Let’s hope you’re right. 🙂
don mcmahon
Pon, excuse a somewhat odd request, krub. I restructured my portfolio a long time ago – out of equities like ORI and into high yield Income Funds. we’re late 70’s early 80s and the logic is to be (relatively) capital risk free, with Thai and foreign (pension) income stability. I’d evaluate the SET to be be unstable, at best, throughout this year. P.T.’s ‘helicopter money’ scheme is likely to cause more foreign fund outflows this year. A negative decision on the future of the MFP could represent a buy opportunity for our liquid funds. if you were a betting man, what odds would you give on the decision by the Court. Tia – and best regards.
peter satrapa-binder
just looking into your conversation. if i was a betting man i’d bet on the dissolution of the MFP. i believe that otherwise things would not have even gotten as far as the EC petitioning the court or the court accepting the EC’s petition.
donmcmahon
Thanks Peter. Depressing but as you say, likely under the ‘rules’ the Kingdom operates under. But – there is a new game coming to town, even if the old guard pretends to not notice. In 5 or less years time, social media will see the end of it, unless we go backwards to coup #99.
peter satrapa-binder
i believe that even if the present old guard will die of old age, their children and younger relatives will be the ‘new old guard’.
don mcmahon
I am more optimistic. As the saying goes ”putting lipstick on a pig” is not going to change the minds of those who, essentially, voted against Puke Thai and its inbred corruption. Realistically – the fix was in to bring back Thaksin. Fortunately for him, it is alleged that he had the foresight to make a loan to the right person at the right time. The only ace he has up his sleeve is to have Yingluk absolved completely of all of the remaining charges and engineer her re-appointment as PM. The rest of the family suffers from a distinct lack of inherited political acumen (and brains, apparently). would love to open a debate on that rag Asean Now. enjoyed this, thanks Peter and, always to Pon, (the artist formerly known as Prince) 🙂
Pon
I see a very low probability that anything changes for Thailand’s current operating system in my lifetime.
Peter Satrapa-Binder
Same here. But then i guess you will have a bigger chance than i do as you are younger than me. 🙂
Peter Satrapa-Binder
Same here, thx don!🙂
Peter Barlow
I learn from and enjoy your opinions on Thai economics and the market, but your opinion on ‘renewables’ is confused. As you are relatively young you will live to see which argument is irrefutable.
Pon
Where is/are my analysis/viewpoints of the renewables space confusing? I have been looking for analysis & information that renewables are the saviours that they are marketed to be.
Wind is useless.
Solar is useless
The damage done to grids are immense.
don mcmahon
Pon, your observation about Thailand never changing is correct. You might smile at an update from my broker: ‘We don’t worry if there is no Pita or MFP is terminated.
They will set up new party name and new leader.
that explains where the expression ”same same but different” comes from .555
as for renewables – if only the hot air emanating from Srettha could be harnessed.
peter satrapa-binder
that one (hot air) would be truly renewable energy! 🙂
Pon
:p
I do want to be proven wrong regarding the current definition renewable’s…but the energyROI is rubbish…
Pon
Doesn’t just apply to Thailand – most countries/cultures operating systems do not change quickly. Unless there is a dramatic shock to the system…
For example, do you remember how good life used to be pre covid?
Or
What about all the street protests in Germany, Hong Kong, Thailand, Spain etc – all forgotten.
don mcmahon
This is Just my opinion, because i care about this country as a guest for 26 years – Thailand’s changes are somewhat unique: military coup/ 2 Judicial coups in succession (2020 and anticipated in 2024). Is that a fair description? However, I’m going off topic. My portfolio going forward is AOT for capital growth and DIF for 10% income, (net of w/h tax & lease amortization). unless you have a good ganja play, now that the flour merchant is in charge of national production.?