AP’s presales made a new high of Bt41.6bn, growing by 85% and exceeding the target of Bt26bn. It has launched 25 projects worth Bt49.04bn this year. (Khao Hoon, 19/12/17)
Comment: Part of me is thinking what’s the total presale value in the market today and from some estimates I see that some THB 406 bn of new launches were done in 10M17 of which 50% are condominiums and thats ~60,000 units. Total new laucnh appears to be 107k units, is this high? If you look back to ’95 transfers were at 300-400k per year. So is this a bubble at the moment? Doesn’t look like it. Could there be oversupply? Sure in certain areas/segments but not throughout the broad market.
BCPG is partnering with Power Ledger, an Australian company, to use blockchain technology in electricity internet trading business. It will use SIRI’s T77 condominium as a prototype project, and expects to show progress within mid-2018 . (Thun Hoon, 19/12/17)
DRT says average capacity utilization has risen to 80.85% of total capacity of 982,000 tons per year, backed by higher purchases of construction material in 4Q17, more customer projects and a rise in sales from modern trade. This will provide growth to 2017 results. (Thun Hoon, 19/12/17)
Comment: A genuine recovery in consumption or just delayed/pent-up demand?
EGCO sold 49% of Masinloc power plant in the Philippines for Bt27.6bn. It expects to transfer the shares and book revenue within 1H18. (Thun Hoon, 19/12/17)
INGRS is progressing on 4 new automobile parts production projects, from which it expects to receive revenue of Bt2bn. It reported 9M17 revenue of Bt2.148bn. (Khao Hoon, 19/12/17)
JMART says 4Q17 results will be good on high demand for new mobile phones from big brands. Demand has exceeded its expectations and it expects 2017 margin to be over 30%. It also reports that its M&A and joint venture plan will be finalized at the beginning of 2018. (Thun Hoon, 19/12/17)
Comment: If JMT can continue its growth path with the massive purchases of bad debt and in the future asset backed debt then JMART may begin to look cheap as a holdco
SUSCO targets 2018 oil sales to grow by 8% and plans to add 30 stations at an investment cost of Bt300mn, with revenue projected to reach Bt23bn. It also expects 2018 sales from CLMV will grow by 10% and has budgeted Bt40-50mn to expand its non-oil business. (Thun Hoon, 19/12/17)
Comment: B Grade PTG, sorry C Grade version of PTG 
TTCL says 2018 results will be outstanding and targets revenue to grow by 20% in tandem with economic recovery. It currently has backlog of Bt12bn and targets to receive new projects worth US$700-800mn. It also expects to book revenue from the solar farm in Japan in 2019. (Thun Hoon, 19/12/17)
WHA says 4Q17 results will show significant growth, backed by growth in every business. It is going to book Bt3.09mn revenue from selling assets to WHART. It also says that the addition of WHA and WHAUP to the SET50 and SET100 indices highlights its strong business fundamentals. (Khao Hoon, 19/12/17)
    • Yes, but ponder the following:
      What if oil prices increase to 70-80? Then the energy sector will move up a lvl
      What if interest rates increase domestically by 1-2%? Then the banking sector will move up a lvl with NIM expansion.
      What happens when the infra projects in Thailand begin construction, then a whole new rush liquidity comes into the country’s banking system, spending and therefore consumer related/construction material names will move up a lvl
      Breaking all time highs mean nothing, its just a number.

      Crypto – different ballgame – won’t comment
      Schiller PE – in my opinion a nice data point doesn’t mean much, and is the PE of google equivalent to the PE of say…standard oil before?
      Buffet – 50% in cash is quite something but has he really sold any of his holdings?

      • Good points Pon,

        oil is bullish, the raise of interest rates will benefit banks and insurance, and infra projects are really a good factor….

        crypto bubble could affect companies who invested in, not sure which sector or industry, it’s ok I will leave out…

        Buffett recently sold Walmart and IBM, but bought Apple, I guess he keeps cash now awaiting for a long due market correction, who knows…

        • Regarding Buffett, yes but were the sales of those 2 companies due to crazy valuations or because he didn’t like the business/industry that both were operating in.

          Regardless it is quite something that he has had some 50% in cash for the past 12 months or so.

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