BGRIM to COD 3 solar farm projects in Vietnam with 677MW capacity in June, confident of achieving 15-20% revenue growth target this year, eyes 2-3 SPP deals in Thailand by end of-3Q.

BTS expects skytrain ridership +4-5% after cod Lat Phrao Intersection station (N9) next to Central Ladpral mall and TMB HQ in 3Q.Comment: I’ve always wondered what impact does tourism have on the BTS ridership numbers

Centara Hotel and Resorts, under CENTEL, has committed to operate as many as 134 hotels, up from the current 76, once a 5-year growth plan is completed.

Comment: So they have a cleaner balance sheet than MINT, their food businesses are doing better, could the next 5 years be the period where CENTEL beats MINT in terms of performance?

DIF to invest in TRUE’s network value up to Bt15.8b, seeks unit holders approval upcoming AGM, June 21.

Comment: Given the recent performance of BTSGIF, will shareholders of leasehold-type funds begin to understand the reliability of the cashflows that they’ve assumed will last forever?

EA buys 48.19% of paid up cap of Taiwan EV powertrain manuf, Zept, for TWD 10m, aims to strengthen competitiveness of its EV business.

Comment: They really are going all in on this, I have questions about whether hydrogen cars make more environmental and economic sense

EFORL’s appointed by GE Medical Systems (TH) to distribute integrated cardiology imaging and workflow solution, Centricity Cardiology Enterprise.

GUNKUL upbeats feedback from solar rooftop turnkey business, GRoof, sees healthy demand from household segment, maintain 25% full year revenue growth target supports by 460mw capacity, Bt2.2b of Bt7b total backlog to realize this year.

OCEAN’s a takeover target by non-listed property developer, which could add revenue by Bt5b from existing projects, Mitihoon Online.Comment: A takeover or a reverse IPO?

ORI’s firm on Bt28b presales and Bt19b revenue, supported by Bt34b backlog, expected to be added to SETHD in 2H19, replacing GLOW.

Comment: There are a lot of eyes on this company, to see how they are going to weather the storm within the real estate sector.

PTTGC said its 3 projects worth Bt70b in EEC are on track to complete and produce revenue next year.

  1. concession and leasehold type assets have built in expiry dates, sure it looks nice to get a 7-9% yield, but at least half of that is just returning your original investment given no terminal value at the end.

    BTSGIF’s price is elevated by ridiculous forecast growth rates which if we look at the 2013-19 actuals, have been considerbly lower than forecast. Look what happens to the price when an appraiser finally concedes a lower more realistic growth rate going forward.

    • Ok, further to my original comment, I read the appraiser uses a 7% discount rate to get an NPV of 59 billion baht. Just a quick calc shows, this means the income has to grow in the mid double digits per annum for the remainder of the concession to get close to that NPV.

      I would love to do the same calc for DIF, JASIF replacing consession term with useful life instead.

        • I wonder if retail investors understand this is not like a bond, there is no money to be returned at the end. What would the price be if the average retail investor understands this. I get the feeling many still think there will be a tangible asset at the end of it.

          My in laws got allocated this fund at the IPO price back in 2013. To be honest, they thought they were buying a piece of the BTS infrastructure so I assume they just ‘glazed’ over the prospectus.

  2. Funny anecdote Pon, an in law of mine subscribed to the IPO of SGP back in the day for I think 8 baht (4 baht post par split) I casually mentioned to them a few months later that a Shinawatra heads the company at the time which resulted in them dumping the stock for political reasons. Had they held the stock til now, would have tripled their original investment if you include the dividends.

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