Stocks in the news (gulf, intuch, bcpg, ptg, thg) 25.11.24
GULF: INTUCH amalgamation deal to complete early 2Q25, sets Bt70b capex plan over next 5 years on new power project that already won license for construction as well as M&A on overseas power & natural gas project, new data center & private cloud solution (Google Distributed Cloud air-gapped) on track to cod in Apr 2025 will fuel earnings growth.
Comment: THB 90 bn in capex is what we were told on Friday. I used to think that they were broke and unable to fund anything, but after sitting down and going through the #s seeing that their equity base will go from THB 100 bn to THB 300 bn post almagation = more debt to borrow and fund everything…
BCPG to acquire 2 wind farms project in Vietnam combined 99mw comprises of 49.5mw Che Bien Tay Nguyen (CBTN) & 49.5mw Phat Trien Mien Nui (PTMN) from EP Group (HK) for VND 3.394b (Bt4.508m), 90% stake to transfer within 1Q25 & remaining 10% within 2 years from the 1st shares transfer completion date.
Comment: WHAT? This is nuts………EVN is broke…(Vietnam’s version of EGAT), let’s see how this project turns out…
PTG maintains 10-15% fuel sales volume growth target supported by Max card loyalty program, harvest season in 2H, surge demand for fuel on holiday season, expects non-oil revenue growth >40-50% yoy lead by expansion of Pan Thai café.
Comment: I’m just waiting for oil prices to come down…
Hospital tycoon Boon Vanasin, founder of THG who lured some Bt7.5b of investments in fake medical projects, has fled to China, prompting the police to issue a warrant for his arrest.
Comment: WTF!
peter satrapa-binder
regarding THG:
the list grows longer: STARK, EA, now THG
and regarding JKN and YGG I am not sure whether these were just ‘normal business/financial misadventures’ or anything more.
on the other hand, THG is up 11%+ for the day currently. 🙂
Pon
JKN – refinancing issue…and I still don’t trust the audited #s
YGG – margin call – owner was leveraging his shares and didn’t have the cash to cover it….several others had the same situation i.e. NRF, WARRIX are two that come to mind.
EA was the most beautiful to observe, margin calls, a ridiculous investment in Taiwan that still doesn’t yield anything a decade later, and the rumours have it that he annoyed the GULF owner and got smacked…
peter satrapa-binder
thx for your insights. well, all this is not that good for the confidence in the market as it rather begs the question: who will be next?
Pon
The vayupak fund has removed these fears for margin calls.
The liquidity situation in the lending sector is still stuck. If SCB made their hotel clients actually pay back the loans as they should be as opposed to be interest only – then NPLs sky rocket to another level.
peter satrapa-binder
the NPL situation in thailand is an elephant in the room. wonder how big they really are.
Pon
Back of the envelope for SCB is 15% of their loan book. But as long as the music is playing then there isn’t an issue 🙂
peter satrapa-binder
usually there isn’t any issue until there is an issue. 🙂