Thailand’s making less babies = poor GDP growth?
Firstly, thanks to KB for sending me this article.
I’ve joked with former colleagues that the increased usage of condoms will hurt GDP in the long term (crude joke I know) but there is a definite correlation that between population growth and GDP growth (in half decently run economies).
These charts from the UN were first published a few years ago and have come back to light again with a recent Credit Suisse report. It’s shows obviously that Thailand’s population is getting older and that in 10 years from now the labour force #’s will drop dramatically. What will be the impact? Simple, if nothing changes, if no new policies are done, if immigration still remains tough, Thailand essentially only has 10 years left of decent economic growth, and then becomes what Western Europe is today, a low growth, unexciting economy.
Source: The Financialist
Ben
Harry Dent has published some great science on demographics in his books showing great correlations between demographics and economic cycles. Generally under -appreciated. We still think Thailand has advantages over developed countries who have huge unfunded age pension and elderly health care costs looming in coming decades and less people (by ratios) to pay the taxes.