The yields have been on my mind for the past few months and it’s been rather confusing.
- The 10 yr Thai gov is @ 2.5% vs the US 10 yr gov bond @ 2.8%
- The yield on the SET is now at 2.59%
- Is the Thai market safer?
- Less risky?
- More attractive for capital flows vs the US market?
- Or does it just demonstrate the amount of liquidity that is within Thailand itself?
- An increasing capital account surplus – though I have read something interesting that argued the CA surplus could be partially made up – credit ML @ MBKET 😉 – that continues to drive more liquidity to Thailand and its domestic capital markets and thus explains the strengthening THB/USD
- Or is this a temp blip and we’ll experience what happened in 2Q16 and see Thai yields blow out? – though there was no impact on the market during this period, however the THB went from 34.9 to 35.6…peanuts.
- I don’t know, there said it, though I wouldn’t be against increasing cash weightings at this time.
- White – US 10 yr
- Yellow (shirt) – Thai 10 yr
- Red (shirt) – SET dividend yield