I already feel like I’m on holiday mode, I believe the market is the same mood.

It’ll be the last week of the year that I’ll post. Let’s see what happens. But Thailand continues to be a dog dog dog. Normally you’d see 1/2 the market green over 12 months and the other 1/2 red and it’ll be a relatively clear indicator what to do for next year. But now there’s just nothing.

The latest news with ITD having to, effectively, be bailed out by the commercial banks just to pay a THB 2 billion loan at the last minute, does not give confidence to the markets nor the outlook next year. Fun times ahead with some THB 1 trn to be rolled over next year….

  1. Pon
    Yes it is an uncertain world at present
    Wondering how the trillions USD treasuries in USA next year will be rolled over & how will affect the USA & the world- will they just print more & what the effects of that will be- could get ugly either way
    Thanks for all your comments, Happy New Year

  2. Yes, its dismal for many but alas mostly internal reasons…i.e. lack of SET & its broker needed reforms & regulatory enforcement lacking. I just tabulated the last 6 shown Thai IPO’s, and made an article for free here on it. -33%, is the average loss, far more then the SET drop during this same time. For long was much dismayed here on IPO’s as they are priced, issued and more. Often lacking proper prospectuses. What a dismal performance as far below the SET lagging! Thai IPO’s have regularly been overpriced for a long time -and now they got the dire problem on hand. As investors are fleeing.
    You can see my detailed tabulation here:

    • peter satrapa-binder

      well, recent news have not exactly be very encouraging for investors:

      – at least 2 companies having defaulted on their bonds

      – a third one, ITC, was reported as having been successful of not defaulting on their bonds this time. which means that there had been a risk of doing so. not exactly encouraging either. and ITC is a big one.

      – the report about ‘naked shorting’ of some counters. which also should not have happened and shows again how lax some controls seem to be.

      also, regarding the economic outlook, except for the planned handout (which in itself might not be a good idea long-term) there does not seem any clear direction yet of what will be done by the government to really stimulate the economy. and as i see it, the forecasts for the thai economy are the same game as it has been playd out for years:

      there are initial forecasts for the GDP growth which are getting downgraded repeatedly as the year progresses until the real result iks far much lower than the optimistic initial forecast. now they already start downgrading the prospects for 2024 – and 2023 is still not over. to be frank, thailand’s economy has been lagging behind it’s peers in ASEAN since way before covid – and it seems not to get much better. let’s see whether thailand will be able to grab some benefits (in form of FDI) from the economic disputes between the usa and china and relocation of some supply chains to other countries in asia.

        • We see Thai retail investors presently only make up some 29% of total trading lately, or much less than half of years past.This on top of continued massive foreign institutional selling. All year. Sad.
          Wonder if/when broker mgt. and the SET start asking themselves, why. Beyond blaming foreign factors.
          It did not have to be this way and it will be interesting to see if any broker and other reforms take place?. If not it will just keep dwindling sides down, maybe for years to come. Oh well.

          • peter satrapa-binder

            regarding ‘The SET asking themselves beyond blaming foreign factors: do you really think that will happen in the foreseeable future?

            based on my experience during my currently 31 years in thailand i’d not be very optimistic about that happening anytime soon.

          • No, I also don’t think meaningful SET/broker reforms are coming. But this does not mean there are not some great high dividend stocks to, but very selectively and with long experience, to invest in.

          • peter satrapa-binder

            regarding ‘The SET asking themselves beyond blaming foreign factors’: do you really believe that such will happen in the foreseeable future?

            based on my experience during my currently 31 years in thailand i’d not be very optimistic about that happening anytime soon.

          • Thailand loves blaming “foreigners” for everything…
            but in the specific case of naked short selling, it occurred, I’m 100% certain of it for at least 2-3 names.

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