So with earnings out, not bad overall, management can start buying their shares in beaten down names again…has the market dropped too far? A little bounce for 1-3 weeks before resuming its downtrend? Or will the commodity complex pull the market back up. Companies and markets are in a (here’s a professional term) funky place.
The bull argument: Massive demand recovery
- Full on reopening in 2H22 for ASEAN, europe, US, middle east, India etc.
- Full domestic reopening for China.
- Listed companies are winning the market share away from their private peers
The bear argument:
- Every cost is higher, commodities, supply chain, financials etc etc supply chain issues = higher inventory requirements = additional costs for warehousing etc etc
- This leads to margin compression.
- Higher rates = higher cost of capital = discount for the market higher = market lower. Very simple.
- If every bank around the world calls back their loans, 50% of companies with debt are bankrupt.