Ah that wonderful September feeling where did you disappear to?
Evergrande is all of the news at the moment, despite this being spread around the investment community for the past 5-6 months. And this is apparently what’s driving the markets on the way down.
Our playbook for the next few weeks are along these lines….US markets will be smacked for the next 1-2 weeks, USD strengthens due to the hawkish rhetoric regarding tapering, commodities pull back and the USD 3 trn stimulus bill in the US doesn’t pass. Then magically within 1-2 months, they’ll push through a stimulus 2x bigger (USD 5-6 trn), noise regarding the tapering disappears, more $ pumping and USD weakens. A simplistic viewpoint yes but that’s very simply it.
Domestically, if you left your home in BKK and went to any of the holiday destinations within 300 km of the capital, they were all packed. Reopening theme will continue.