From a Head of Research friend “Earnings: 1Q season is over and on aggregate it was up 28% and c.30% of our forecast. We run a preview on most our and on aggregate the actual earnings were 15.5% higher than expectation. This means upgrades…”

Watch for the upgrades, why? The fortune cookie vaccine and AZ are rolling out with more slated for the next 1-2 months, the Thai government will stick its head in the sand like a good ostrich and still open up Phuket in July (hence the draconian requirements for locals & tourists to re-enter their hometown there) and the positive newsflow will begin again. Though yes I’m wondering how 2H22/1H23 will look now…

As for the questions regarding “but the SMEs are dead?!”

  • Yes, I drove around Ladprao and ~80% of shophouses closed with more than half posting for rent signs. But they don’t have an impact on GDP figures nor the stock market directly.
  • Remember restaurants and all these businesses don’t have any significant impact on GDP #’s

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