A mini random thought that will be fleshed out later…btw join us on Telegram link (https://t.me/thaicapitalist) we’ve been having fun chatting about ideas & what’s going on in the market (jmart/singer/wph/prm/royalty… *grin*)

Where are the markets today

2020 – lockdown

2021 – reopening for the Western Markets

2022 – 1H22 – Ukraine/Russia, 2H22 Asia finally reopens

So with supply chains being locked down in multiple parts of the world from 1Q20 to 4Q22, there is now a wave of demand that is still yet to hit businesses/commodities. Supply chains are nowhere near their efficiency levels of pre-c19, due to a combination of bankruptcies due to lockdowns, geopolitics due to US vs China and Russia vs Ukraine. And due to a combination of reshoring/offshoring away from Chyna, it will take at least another 5 years in my opinion before we can see the resemblance of the same global efficiencies.

The impact on businesses and consumers is that there is an additional cost incurred. Whether it be financial in terms of items costing more or convenience – a reduction in the quantity of goods available. When there is decreased volume => decreased manufacturing => decreased ISM figures and demand for goods.

Additional costs – further result in quality, strong market share companies (and the odd 1 or 2 innovative players) being able to grab market share from their weaker competitors. So we aim to find the strong and innovative players that are able to generate cashflow and pass on increased costs with minimal kickback from their customer base.

You’re seeing an environment where the best are likely to continue growing QoQ & YoY. But what will they be valued at? There is now a cost to capital, the USD 1 year is now at 5%, just 2 years ago this would’ve been considered unimaginable, pre 2009 – this was perfectly normal, let’s watch.

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