On the road for 4 of 5 weeks – great time for random thoughts and notes…

Commodity cycle for dummies

Owned the commodity names from 2020-2023, then own the capex beneficiaries of the commodity names from 2024-2027, then own the names that benefit from the decline of commodity prices as supply hits the globe, 2028-2035, rinse and repeat.

But will I have to get back into the commodity names at one point?

Earnings Co notes

Thai co’s are finally done with releases…jotted these down, retail, debt, ad’s gets a quick summary viewpoint of thailand in general at the moment. CRC, TIDLOR, HMPRO, TOA, PLANB

  • Note these are a combination of copied from sales, research and my own thoughts – apols as I don’t have all sources saved on hand.


It will acquire 24 land plots (22 Thai Watsadu, 1 Tops, 1 Tops DC) for Bt5.6bn by 2Q24 and expects Bt250m one-time gain and Bt100m/year cost savings (Bt40m net interest cost).

Sales revenues increased by 1% y-y and 10% q-q to Bt58.5bn. By segment, fashion sales (31%) grew by 4% y-y, hardline (32%) grew by 2% y-y while food sales (37%) fell by 2% y-y dragged by Vietnam foods. 4Q23 SSSG was -2.4% (+3% for fashion, -8% for hardline, -5% for foods).


Loans grew 6% q-q and 19% YTD, driven mainly by auto and motorcycle titled loans. TIDLOR remains cautious on used truck HP. HP loans made up 10.5% of total loans from 13% in 2022. NIM squeezed slightly q-q on higher cost of funds. 4Q23 cost of funds was 3.2% and 2.9% for 2023.


Sales revenues were Bt16.9bn, down 1% y-y but up 3% q-q, on -8.5% SSSG for HomePro and -7.5% SSSG for Mega Home, while there were sales from new stores as it had two more HomePro branches and nine new Mega Home stores during 2023 to a total of 94 HomePro stores (89 HomePro, 5 HomePro S) in Thailand, 7 HomePro in Malaysia and 27 Mega Home branches.

Gross margin on sales rose by 127bp y-y and 62bp q-q to 27.34%. Drivers were rising private-label mix of HomePro to 21.5% (20.8% in 4Q22) and of Mega Home to nearly 21% (17% in 4Q22) and lower price campaigns. In 4Q23, gross margin of HomePro expanded by 30-40bp y-y and over 200bp y-y for Mega Home. 

It delivered a new record net profit of Bt6.4bn in 2023, grew by 4% y-y, on the back of 5% sales growth boosted by store expansion (HomePro’s SSSG was a slight negative by less than 1%, -3% SSSG for Mega Home) and improving gross margin on sales by 47bp y-y to 26.6%


TOA’s total sales increased 6% y-y in 4Q23 due to an increase in both decorative and non-decorative product sales mainly from higher demand for paint and construction material products following a recovery in the tourism industry and demand for residential renovation in urban areas. 

Its gross margin improved to 34% in 4Q23 from 29% in 4Q22 due to higher average selling prices but lower raw material and packaging costs.


PLANB’s total revenue increased by 23% y-y in 4Q23 driven by its OOH media revenue growth of 23% y-y (79% of total revenue) due to a recovery in the OOH media ad spending. Its utilization rate improved to 82% in 4Q23 from 72% in 4Q22.

Its engagement marketing revenue also rose by 21% y-y in 4Q23 due to a resumption of OOH activities. Out of that amount, sport marketing revenue grew by 39% y-y in 4Q23 while artist management revenue grew by 11% y-y.

What a stat this was:

  • Samsung’s four factories in Vietnam contributed 33% to the South Korean tech giant’s $11.8 bn profit in 2023.

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