MINT says worst is over in 2Q20, 70% of hotel operations and 90% of restaurants has resumed.

Comment: One would hope so. And now with their balance sheet “saved” with the recent cap raise. Each quarter for the next 16 quarters will show constant improvement. 

MTC sees solid recovery in 2H from school reopening and crop harvesting, keeps NPLs at 2%, expands branches to 2,700, and maintaining loan growth at 20-25%.

Comment: I’ve admittedly misunderstood this industry for years. GSB can’t compete, the #6 player in the industry has cost of operations at 14% and therefore its impossible for GSB to provide financing at 8-9% (note they’ve walked that statement back). Hence why players such as MTC and SAWAD have to keep expanding. The customer base requires face to face interaction. 

THRE said health insurance premium, boosted by the pandemic, will be realized over next 3 quarters, expects Bt3.8b this year or 10% growth, paving the way for dividend payment to resume.

ZEN sees margin recovery in 2H, target 100% growth in home delivery to Bt280-300m, from Bt120m yoy.

Comment: They have the outlets available to do this, but we have heard rumours that they are looking to sell a brand or 2. 

  1. peter satrapa-binder

    @MINT: Well their operations have resumed. The question is only whether they generate a profit or at least break even currently…

  2. I dont get it as they are basing this on she’ll be right mate and not the low numbers of tourist coming – after all 6 months out of work and bills to pay would leave most not able to have a holiday

    • peter satrapa-binder

      yes, this is something what i have been thinking about too – for many people very probably holidays won’t be much of an immediate priority once things started to open up fully again… so i rather guess that the tourism sector worldwide will not be picking up very much before the end of 2021…

      • I can imagine a scenario where Thailand opens up tourism, one of the first country’s to do so, and then massively benefits ahead of several other locations globally/regionally.

        • peter satrapa-binder

          not impossible so let’s see. but i am still somewhat sceptical that the worldwide situation regarding covid and associated problems will improve very much very soon…

  3. I can see the rush to open up as well but 2 weeks quarantine I cant see people banging down the door to spend their holiday that way. 2nd is one or 2 infected is enough to start it all over again as herd immunity is not in Thailand.
    3rd is many people wont travel as they have no money, no job, and plenty of debt

    I just saw Thailand biggest GDP Fall Since 1998 – and this things not over yet – in fact they’ve just started

    I am not a pessimist but really counting chickens before they’ve hatched is wishful thinking = even Buffet bought a gold mine and hes been anti gold most of his trading career

    • peter satrapa-binder

      same here – i guess the only people to come to thailand in the next few months or 1 year will be expats returning to their lives and families in thailand (for them a 2 week quarantine would not change things that much), official visitors and businessmen who will need to stay for a long time (not just coming for some short business trip). so the number of visitors is bound to remain very limited this year and probably well into next year…

      also, currently a visit to thailand is not only time-consuming but also expensive (documents, tests, insurance, quarantine; so i guess anything less than a THB 100,000.- price tag would be surprisingly cheap).

      so i’d say 2020 is over for international tourism – and probably at least the first half of 2021 too. i’d say there’s no rush to buy hospitality companies’ stocks yet – i don’t think that they saw their bottoms (pricewise) yet…

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