Thailand’s economy slows slightly – June
Thailand’s economy still expanded in June but at a lower rate b/c of Europe but it was good to see domestic demand and tourism expanding stronger than most peoples expectations.
Just quickly:
- Manufacturing – contracted by -9.89% (Europe)
- Consumption – PCI rose +4.4%
- Investments – PPI rose +18.3% (Auto industry mainly)
- EXIM – Exports declined -4.3%, imports 5.0%
- Tourism – Foreign arrivals + 10.1% to 1.6 mn tourists led mainly by Chinese and Vietnamese travelers, interesting to note that European visitors still +6.8%
See below for full figures from the BOT
| 2011 | 2012 | ||||||
| Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | June | |
| Real sector | |||||||
| Mfg prod index (seasonally adj) | 143.9 | 165.6 | 183.4 | 178.0 | 179.0 | 189.3 | 174.1 |
| Mfg prod index (w/o seasonal adj) | 140.7 | 159.0 | 172.4 | 193.2 | 165.3 | 189.0 | 182.4 |
| Mfg prod index yoy chg (w/o season adj) | -25.3 | -15.0 | -3.1 | -2.6 | 0.0 | 6.0 | -9.6 |
| Industrial capacity utilisation (%) | 53.2 | 58.3 | 62.4 | 67.2 | 61.1 | 74.3 | 72.4 |
| Private consumption indicators | |||||||
| Retail sales ’95 prices (yoy % chg) | -4.5 | 3.1 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 25.8 | n.a. |
| Passenger car sales units (yoy % chg) | -33.8 | -7.4 | -1.4 | -2.2 | 24.9 | 137.5 | 84.2 |
| Motorcycle sales units (yoy % chg) | -22.3 | -7.4 | 6.8 | -0.6 | 4.9 | 14.5 | -3.5 |
| Impts consumer gds 95 price (yoy% chg) | 14.8 | -1.5 | 15.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 17.9 | 7.9 |
| Private investment indicators | |||||||
| Com’l car sales units (yoy % chng) | -46.9 | 29.2 | 33.4 | 36.8 | 35.2 | 85.8 | 68.3 |
| Impts capital gds 95 price (yoy % chng) | 16.6 | 4.7 | 41.6 | 4.0 | 25.2 | 38.4 | 27.7 |
| Cement sales tonnes (yoy % chng) | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 9.4 |
| Government cash balance (Bt bn) | -37.1 | -29.7 | -119.4 | -180.3 | -47.0 | 29.8 | 167.4 |
| Consumer price index | 3.53 | 3.38 | 3.35 | 3.45 | 2.47 | 2.53 | 2.56 |
| Food | 9.09 | 7.70 | 7.18 | 7.07 | 4.51 | 5.18 | 4.72 |
| Non-food | 0.17 | 0.73 | 1.01 | 1.23 | 1.18 | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Core inflat (excluding food&energy) | 2.66 | 2.75 | 2.72 | 2.77 | 2.13 | 1.95 | 1.92 |
| External accounts | |||||||
| Exports (US$mn) | 16,856 | 15,520 | 18,621 | 19,661 | 16,630 | 20,549 | 19,507 |
| yoy % chng | -2.1 | -6.1 | 1.2 | -6.8 | -3.5 | 6.7 | -4.3 |
| Imports (US$mn) | 17,094 | 14,998 | 16,569 | 21,062 | 17,364 | 19,975 | 17,864 |
| yoy % chng | 19.6 | -2.5 | 8.2 | 21.5 | 9.0 | 16.8 | 5.0 |
| Trade balance (US$mn) | -238 | 522 | 2,052 | -1,401 | -734 | 574 | 1,644 |
| Current acct balance (US$mn) | 1,940 | 981 | 1,092 | -1,522 | -1,516 | -1,540 | 604 |
| Net capital flow (US$mn) | -2,434 | 313 | 1,425 | 487 | 142 | -3,002 | -635 |
| Monetary Authorities (US$ mn) | -608 | 760 | 2,424 | -219 | -434 | -954 | -40 |
| Government (US$ (mn) | 227 | 342 | 263 | 325 | 881 | -246 | 1,167 |
| Bank (US$mn) | -244 | 1204 | 971 | 3,057 | 2,807 | 1,296 | -509 |
| Others (US$mn) | -1,809 | -1,993 | -2,232 | -2,676 | -3,112 | -3,098 | -1,253 |
| Balance of payments (US$mn) | -1,029 | -160 | 2,082 | 766 | -1,008 | -2,774 | 519 |
| Official reserves (US$bn) | 175.1 | 178.6 | 180.4 | 179.2 | 179.0 | 171.7 | 174.7 |
| Monetary indicators | |||||||
| Monetary base (Bt bn) | 1,365.5 | 1,331.1 | 1,309.3 | 1,312.5 | 1,341.1 | 1,340.3 | 1,331.3 |
| yoy % chng | 9.8 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 8.8 |
| Commercial bank deposits | 11,634.5 | 11,810.5 | 11,977.0 | 12,340.9 | 12,414.4 | 12,603.7 | 12,926.6 |
| yoy % chng | 9.9 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 13.6 | 17.6 |
| Commercial bank private credits | 11,558.9 | 11,702.4 | 11,800.1 | 11,908.7 | 12,079.0 | 12,279.7 | 12,394.1 |
| yoy % chng | 16.2 | 16.3 | 15.6 | 15.5 | 16.4 | 16.8 | 16.1 |
| Interest rates | |||||||
| Repurchase rate, avg, 1 day (%) | 3.25 | 3.19 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Overnight interbank, avg (%) | 3.15 | 3.09 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| Fixed deposit rate 1-year (%) | 2.87 | 2.87 | 2.86 | 2.86 | 2.86 | 2.86 | 2.86 |
| Prime rate MLR (%) | 7.25 | 7.22 | 7.13 | 7.13 | 7.13 | 7.13 | 7.13 |
| Exchange rate (baht/US$) | 31.2 | 31.55 | 30.71 | 30.71 | 30.88 | 31.36 | 31.65 |
Source: Bank of Thailand