1. Moratorium borrowers need a break : 30% of SMEs under the scheme are unable to make repayments. Some 30% of borrowers entering the debt moratorium scheme are not expected to be able to service their debts at the same rate, says the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Bank of Thailand (SME D Bank). Bangkok Post
  2. BoT vows to maintain LTV regulations : The Bank of Thailand has been closely monitoring property supply amid the slower pace of residential project sales, vowing to keep loan-to-value (LTV) regulations for mortgage loans unchanged. Bangkok Post
  3. Digital ad spending to see flat growth in 2020 : The country’s digital advertising spending is projected to see flat growth this year because of the coronavirus pandemic, for the first time in eight years, says a report jointly commissioned by the Digital Advertising Association of Thailand (DAAT) and marketing consultancy Kantar Insights Thailand. Bloomberg
  4. B10bn for charter rewrite : Cabinet gives nod to bill for referendums. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha yesterday warned that the cost of a constitutional amendment could reach 10 billion baht, as the cabinet yesterday approved a bill to pave the way for national referendums on the rewrite of the charter. Bangkok Post
  5. Govt to subsidise graduates’ wages : The cabinet yesterday approved a new measure to create jobs as the government tries to revive an economy devastated by the coronavirus pandemic. Bangkok Post
  6. PM dusts off South Land Bridge plan : Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha yesterday ordered a new feasibility study into a proposal to build a land bridge between the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea, seen as a potential key part of a new major economic development plan in the South. Bangkok Post
  7. Phuket entry pilot stalled slightly : Facilities preparing for tourist isolation. The government is confident that a new reopening plan for Phuket will conform with public opinion, while a local hotel association is calling for safe, pragmatic and strategic entry for foreign travellers. Bangkok Post
  8. 2nd phase of rehab plan targets farming, new jobs : The second phase of the state’s 400-billion-baht spending plan for social and economic rehabilitation is set to finance new projects aimed at strengthening the farming sector and creating more jobs. Bangkok Post
  9. Charter rewrite to take 2 years : The process of amending the constitution and making laws organic in the new charter is expected to be complete by July 2022. Bangkok Post
  10. BoT issuing THOR bonds next year : New reference rate after LIBOR wrap-up. The Bank of Thailand plans to issue new bonds based on the Thai Overnight Repurchase Rate (THOR) next year, aiming to encourage the use of the new reference rate after the upcoming phase-out of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). Bangkok Post
  1. all above points considered, i’d say that the real bottom of thailand’s economy won’t be seen until at least the end of 3Q20 or even 4Q20. i guess that there will be still some companies which are holding out still in the hope that help or improvement is around the corner but if that won’t happen in the next 1-2 months, i guess quite a lot of them will collapse, and unemployment will rise from current levels – with all that entails: domestic purchasing power dropping, corporate and personal NPL’s rising, etc.

    of course, political developments will also play a considerable role.

    the question will also be how strong thailand’s banks and finance companies are and whether they will be able to deal with any problems coming their way…

    • For the economy, it’s already passed…what could be worse than the March – May period when effectively everything was closed?
      Now what we are going to see is the impact upon the individual and the small business which if combined with policy errors (or less politely put, government f-up’s) will lead to the doom gloom scenario.

      • peter satrapa-binder

        i agree – the GDP bottoming out has most probably already passed, more or less – international tourism income for example cannot decrease more than 100 % – and it should at least slightly increase in the months to come. but i think that a possible positive development there might come to slow and be to weak for quite a lot of companies which currently just barely hang on. so, the knock-on effects like unemployment numbers and following that lower domestic spending power could still increase until at least end of this year.

        much will also depend on whether at least a little bit of the 2020/2021 tourism high season could be retained or whether all will be totally down until the next one, near the end of 2021…

  2. the 2nd wave of the corona plannedemic is a financial one
    we are seeing it starting to swell with massive government debt, closing businesses, lost jobs, the masses relocating back to the farm to live a subsistence life
    the winners are the Netflix, Amazon, couriers, etc – just look at the way Amazon has largely crushed the middle man shop or business owners and scooped up their sales into the internet = change is a coming folks

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