Everything is about Iran…

1. The IEA said it will release more than 400mn barrels from emergency reserves while the Iran war is now in its 3rd week.
2. University of Thai Chamber of Commerce, Bloomberg – TH GDP FY26 could be cut by half from its earlier 2% projection from a triple whammy between weaker tourism, softer exports, and higher energy prices, if the Iranian war drags for 3Ms. In a more severe scenario where the conflict drags on for 6Ms, growth could -2.3% and tip TH into a contraction, the first since the pandemic in 2020.
3. Thailand is heavily dependent on imported energy. Roughly half of its crude comes from the Middle East, much of it through the Strait of Hormuz. The Thai government is exploring all options to bolster fuel stockpiles, including negotiations to purchase oil from Russia, Transport Minister Phiphat said on Fri. Thailand currently has a cushion – including shipments en route – to cover about 98 days of consumption.
4. Official PM vote expected by the market to be on 19Mar before appointing ministers. 2 weeks after the sworn-in; policies are expected to be finalized and announced.
5. The Airlines Association of Thailand (AAT) is urging the government to reduce the Jet A-1 fuel excise tax to stabilize costs amidst global energy price volatility. Simultaneously, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is proposing a “Buy International, Get Domestic Free” campaign to stimulate demand. The Offer: International tourists who book a flight into Thailand will receive free domestic flight tickets within the country. Targeted at 400,000 seats with a budget of c. Bt700mn. Participating Airlines: Thai Airways (THAI), Bangkok Airways (BA), Thai AirAsia (AAV), Nok Air (NOK), Thai Lion Air, and Thai Vietjet. The government would subsidize c. Bt1,750/leg (Bt3,500 for a round trip). 
6. The Constitutional Court yesterday accepted a petition in 6-3 votes to rule on whether the use of barcodes and Quick Response (QR) codes on ballot papers in Thailand’s Feb 8 general election violated the constitution. The court instructed all relevant agencies and individuals to submit written clarifications within 15 days. 
7. Now with South Pars affected, the picture is even murkier. 80% of Qatar’s LNG goes to Asia. Price-sensitive countries in South Asia and parts of SE Asia will likely cancel tenders and revert to fuel oil or coal. At this juncture, Thailand’s gas pool price which consists of Gulf of Thailand (60%), Myanmar (15%) and LNG import (25%) face pressure on potential rising FT tariff rate from May onwards as the portion of the LNG import stock is enough until April-26. 
8. Airlines have been warned that they will face jet fuel shortages as soon as next month, risking flight cancellations to long-haul destinations at the end of the busy Easter holiday period. The Int’l Air Transport Association said the conflict had exposed “deep vulnerabilities in jet fuel security” and that Europe is among the most exposed, with 25–30% of its jet fuel demand originating from the Persian Gulf.

Grok (edited)

Political News 

Thai King formally opened the new parliament on March 14 amid ongoing scrutiny over February election ballots (barcodes/QR codes potentially violating secrecy laws; 21 public complaints filed).

Election Commission certified 499/500 seats from the February 8 snap election (Bhumjaithai Party: 191 seats; People’s Party: 120; Pheu Thai: 74).

Bhumjaithai Party (led by Anutin Charnvirakul) formed a coalition with Pheu Thai and smaller parties (>290 seats total), paving the way for stable government after years of volatility.

Landmark moment: Parliament elected Anutin Charnvirakul as Prime Minister on March 19 with 293 votes (vs. 119 for People’s Party rival Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut) — first reelected PM in two decades.

New government expected to start in April; political scientist notes rare alignment of “referee and players” for potential stability.

National/Country News

PM Anutin chaired crisis meeting (March 19) on fuel shortages at petrol stations; Thailand subsidising diesel amid panic buying.

Government confirms adequate oil reserves; turning to Russia, Brazil, and Africa for supplies; one Thai farmer reported deceased in Israel (March 18).

Massive drug bust: 14 million meth pills seized, 7 suspects arrested.

Corporate/Business News (Top 8 items)

Thai business group maintains 2026 GDP growth forecast at 1.6–2.0% despite geopolitical risks.

Bank of Thailand governor aims for 2.7% growth via combined fiscal/monetary policy and investments (up from ~1.9% current view).

Thai CEOs of listed companies expect 1.1–2.0% economic growth in 2026; see investment opportunities but flag rising geopolitical risks (esp. Middle East).

Stricter rules for establishing Thai companies/partnerships with foreign investors effective Jan 1, 2026 (new supporting documents required for Thai shareholders).

Major 2026 tax reforms ahead: potential VAT changes, e-Tax transition, risk-based audits, and Global Minimum Tax implications.

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