Potential Changes to the SET50 and SET100

These names have not been confirmed yet but brokers are expecting that these will be the changes.

SET50

  • Expected Additions: BGRIM, DELTA, ESSO, KTC, RATCH
  • Expected Deletions: BCP, KCE, PSH, TPIPP, WHA

SET100

  • Expected Additions: BLA, ERW, MBK, PRM, PTL, RS, THANI, VGI
  • Expected Deletions: ANAN, BA, BIG, JMART, JWD, MC, MONO, THCOM, TTA, STA, UNIQ

Closing as of 30 April

1.8 GHz Auctions
Telco’s have been in an odd space given the initial news that the NBTC was going to give ADVANC and TRUE a potential delay on their payments for the 4G bids done in 2015. This was of course backtracked. Following on from this DTAC had been in the potential scenario of having no spectrum in place given the delay of these 1.8 GHz auctions until the recent deal with TOT.

So where’s the industry at now? 

  • The acting NBTC’s 1.8GHz auctions have been scheduled for Aug 4, 2018. And it looks likely that DTAC and ADVANC will join the auctions with TRUE unable to because of their absolutely rubbish balance sheet.

Some technical details:

  • There are 3 1.8 GHz licenses (15 MHz x 2 for each one),
    There will not be an auction of the 900 MHz license (5MHz x 2) because of, wait for it, dangers that may arise from signal interference between telecom and high-speed train usage….

Some financial details:

  • Reserve price is set at THB 37.5 bn
  • Bidding guarantee is THB 1.87 bn
  • In case of a default on the first license payment, winners be fined an additional THB 5.6 bn (from the guarantee)

Bidding details:

  • Spread is at THB 75 mn per round
  • N-1 formula applied (# of bidders must exceed the number of licenses by one)
  • If no party submits bid documents, the NBTC may revise the auction rules to split it into 9 licenses (5 MHz x 2 each)
  • If there is only one bidder, the auction will be postponed for 30 days to attract more bidders, if there are still no additional bidders, then the NBTC will automatically auction one license to a single bidder at the reserve price + 1 spread

Timeline:

  • Bid documents due 15 June
  • Pre-auction qualification period: 16 June to 31 July
  • Qualified bidders announcement: 2 Aug
  • Mock auctions: 1-3 Aug
  • Auction date: 4 Aug

So what?

  • Looks like there are only two players this time, ADVANC and DTAC. DTAC has a better balance sheet and needs to secure these licenses, ADVANC – for them its a luxury not a necessity at the moment. So prices should not be as ridiculously high as they were for the 4G bids.
  • JAS isn’t joining this…

Malaysian Elections

That was one helluva night following the Malaysian Elections. Impact to Thailand? Well for the time being, some people are inspired by what occurred, the headlines of “Democracy Works” that are coming as a result of Malaysia’s elections will have an impact on members of the voting population here in Thailand
As always Dr. Thitinan says it best…
Several ramifications from Malaysia stand out for Thailand. First, the Malaysian outcome is unlikely to accelerate the poll timeline here. For Thailand, the military government represents the incumbency. Seeing Malaysia’s incumbent fall by the wayside so unceremoniously will not entice Thai military leaders to bring on a poll. Second, the digitalisation effects deserve attention. Rural patronage networks in Malaysia and Thailand are deep-seated but social media proliferation in recent years may well have undermined and diluted patron-client relations and vote buying. By the time Thailand votes again, it will have been around eight years, a span when online and digital media have made extensive inroads in people’s minds.
Finally, long-established incumbencies can survive only if they remain vigilant against corruption, adept on economic performance, and broadly responsive to their electorates. The contrast here is between Malaysia’s Umno/BN and Singapore’s People’s Action Party (PAP). The latter arrested its decline in popularity by making changes and adjustments to keep up with the demands and expectations of its electorate. The PAP is going strong even though it faces challenges like other ruling regimes. For Thailand’s military government and whatever coalition of political parties it stirs up to win the election, what just transpired in Malaysia does not bode well.
Source: Bangkok Post

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