Not many papers can match his thoughts and insights and whilst this one is the must-read that last month’s was, he does take a step further utilising sports as an analogy for his analysis on investments, here’s the conclusion and a link to the rest of the memo, enjoy!

  • For most participants, success is likely to lie more dependably in discipline, consistency and minimization of error, rather than in bold strokes – high batting average and an absence of  strikeouts, not the occasional, sensational home run.  
  • But in order to be superior, a player has to do something different from others and has to have an  appropriate level of confidence that he can succeed at it.  Without conviction he won’t be able to act boldly and survive bouts of uncertainty and the inevitable slump.  
  • Because of the significant role played by randomness, a small sample of results is far from sure to be indicative of talent or decision-making ability.
  • The goal for bettors is to see value in assets that others haven’t yet recognized and that isn’t reflected in prices.   
  • At first glance it seems effort and “common sense” will lead to success, but these often prove to be unavailing.  
  • In particular, it turns out that most people can’t see future outcomes much better than anyone else, but few are aware of this limitation.   
  • Before a would-be participant enters any game, he should assess his chances of winning and whether they justify the price to play.

Source: Oaktree Capital

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